Oh, no, not again!!!
Andy from CT? the same Andy that is into “made in the USA” technology fame of previous blogs? How comforting that yours is among the bottom, or bedrock, of our little blog-fest, way down there….
Ok, the Dow needs to lose about 10% to revisit Andy’s entry point. (Currently at 12969) Impossible? Well, lemme throw this at you…of those companies missing their earnings estimates in the Dow–GM may come to mind–how many could miss by 10%? GE, at $.44 as opposed to $.48 estimated. BAC, at $.23 as opposed to, I think, $.46. Oh, and C, which is slated to earn one-quarter of their dividend payments this year. If you don’t think companies are floating debt by the battleship-full, then you won’t believe that the consumer isn’t in a great position to help them service this debt,either. Stay tuned.
I’m glad to see that Ben and Company have “saved” the banks (the cause of the crisis in the first place). Consumers are now paying the price and will for a long time to come. Inflation has taken hold and it will takes months (or years) to bring it back in line after all the reckless interest rate cuts.
As for the rebate checks, this is just a veiled bailout for banks. Most consumers will use these rebates to pay down debt. Collection agencies are chomping at the bit to start calling people. They KNOW the checks are in the mail and people can not claim they don’t have any money to pay their bills. Those without debt are the smart ones anyway and will only save the rebate. The only retail gains will be in gasoline and food which (thanks to Ben) have increased to a level where remaining disposable income for the “normal” person has been eroded.
The recession is real, will only get worse, and will last well into 2010.
If the worst is over, isn’t this exactly the wrong time to cut interest rates some more and spur inflation and the free fall of the dollar? Or is the Fed and Bernanke fixated on inflating the currency regardless of the cost?
I’m 38 years old and this is the worst I’ve seen it in my life and I don’t see anything changing anytime soon. I own a small business which is now failing and am VERY worried about my families future.
Wake up Paul R. La Monica !!!
The economy is not doing any better than a year ago. The Govt. keeps bailing out the fraudulent lenders and now thay want to bail out the iresposible borrowers who wanted to make a killing in the real estate mkt after reading junk that people like you keep writing.
This is a free mkt and a free mkt goes through UPs and Downs. It shld be left to itself to correct.
The worst of the sub-prime mortgage mess has not hit yet. It will be only the 3rd quarter that we will get to see the worst.
Please STOP trying to bring FALSE CHEER to the people. !!!!!!
“Most of you pessimists are reading only headlines that the media puts forth to sell news. If they printed “things are improving” would it sell papers or get your attention the same as “the sky is falling”? Look into why certain commodities are rising (oil rising by investor buying of commodities)(rice prices rising due to Australia crop problems & wheat prices rising due to crops being seitched to corn for ethanol). Why do you all spread the negativity and hope for the worst???”
Robert, Fremont, Ca
Complete BS. “Hope for the worst”? It is called facing reality, which is obviously something you don’t have the emotional maturity to do. No one here said “The sky is falling”: it is merely our financial system that is coming apart.
“Pessimists are reading only headlines that the media puts forth to sell news”. Wrong. I shorted the market last October when all the idiots in the media were telling us how great things were. Now the media is once again telling us everything is ok again, and I am still short the market. The only suckers here are the optimists that have bought into the “worse is over” story.
Not one single event has taken place that would be needed to be done to fix the US economy, yet miraculously “the worst is over”. HA!
Did someone donate 10 trillion dollars to erase our debt?
Did Americans inherit a boatload of cash to compensate for the 5 years of negative savings?
Did all of our manufacturing base recall their presses from foreign lands?
Did we finally abandon the myth of “Trickle down” Reaganomics as Bush Sr. rightly called “Voodoo” Economics?
No none of this has happened, so we are not anywhere near out of the woods yet. I also find it very interesting that as I write this comment…I’m looking at a U.S Air Force advertisement. Now that is the future of America… never-ending war for war profiteers!!!
Crisis! There is a crisis! I don’t know how great it is and I really don’t even know for sure what it is, but I will not stop whining until I find it!
Sheesh!
During the reign of James Earl (aka “Jimmy”) Carter, gasoline peaked around $1.74 and we all whined about it — at least when we could find some to buy. Adjusted for inflation, that $1.74 today would be $6.13!
Crisis resolved.
You may now whine about something else.
Most of you pessimists are reading only headlines that the media puts forth to sell news. If they printed “things are improving” would it sell papers or get your attention the same as “the sky is falling”? Look into why certain commodities are rising (oil rising by investor buying of commodities)(rice prices rising due to Australia crop problems & wheat prices rising due to crops being seitched to corn for ethanol). Why do you all spread the negativity and hope for the worst???
Or NOT! The following housing data comes from John Mauldin’s free weekly email.
New home sales were just reported to be down to an annual rate of 526,000. The number of months needed to sell the existing supply has grown from 8.4 months last October to 11 months today. And yet home builders currently are starting new homes at an annual rate of 947,000. This just puts the bottom of the housing bubble correction further into the future. On the other hand, buying a new house is going to be a lot of fun for some people with good credit over the next year or two.
Apparently, Mr. Paul R. La Monica is getting too much refreshment over lunch with his financial buddies. After more than 100 comments on this story, it is painfully clear that he has no clue to what is going on in this country. Nobody is buying whatever it is that he’s selling.
CNN: Is he just spouting Happytalk, or have y’all made a very bad employment decision?
Lowering interest rates has only helped the banks. It won’t help potential home buyers who face similar loan expenses as a year ago, and it won’t help builders who face rising materials and gas prices at the same time housing prices continue declining. It won’t help current homeowners who face higher heating bills and higher property taxes from the increase in valuations( that occurred during the real estate bubble). It won’t help those in the financial and insurance business, those clamored for lower rates, and who now face unemployment. And it won’t help Bernanke, who has confused today’s consumer driven economy with the over-production of the late 1920’s. The problem isn’t too few dollars chasing goods, it’s too few buyers .Too few buyers with purchasing power.
Obviously Mr. La Monica is not living in reality. Look at oil and gold prices! Food prices have skyrocketed as well and my pay has only risen 3% in the past 2 and 1/2 years… and I’m an experienced engineer! Look at the unemployment filings. Go to a restaurant on a Tuesday night and notice the lack of people. Oil has yet to hit its peak price. Until I get a raise to match or beat inflation and gas keeps rising above $3.50 per gallon, there isn’t any way to convince me that the worst is over.
With the price of a tank of gasoline up, the price of grocries up, the renewal rate of my CD’s down, my standard of living down. I am having a hard time seeing how the worst is over. I think the snowball is just getting started rolling down the hill to land on all of the middle class living at the bottom of the hill. Capital Hill on the other hand does not have a clue. We were cold most of the winter in our home and now I guess I can look forward to being hot most of the coming summer. We try to cut back on the amount of electricity we use but the few dollars we save are not making us feel comfortable. We have cut back on the amount of driving we do but the gas bill is higher than it was last month. We have not been on a vacation in two years but come hell or high water we are going on one this year. May have to go with a group deal to afford it but something is better than nothing. Our golden years are not looking so golden as prices rise and income goes down. Anyone out there had to have a crown put on a tooth lately, My Gooooddddd. Ouch.
WALL STREET IS NO LONGER A GOOD BAROMETER OF THE AVERAGE PERSON’S ECONOMY! WHATS WORSE IS THEY DON’T CARE ABOUT THE UPPER MIDDLE CLASS AND THOSE WHO MAKE LESS!
One of the best businesses to get into on the “ground floor” right now is the funeral industry, especially in the NYC metro area! The grim reaper will be in town more sooner than later for all the greedy wall street people he’s been eying up over the past decade who know nothing other than an “up market”. It’s “Triple Witching Hour Time”, for Gas, Food & Foreclosures, that have had a slow blood letting effect on the economy. After the “average Joe” has exhausted EVERY means of borrowing EVERY penny they can from every source possible, WAY beyond their means & ability to pay it back, (as per their attorney’s recommendations) the heart will have no more blood (aka $$$) to pump and death (bankruptcy) will settle in across this nation.
With people cashing in their 401k’s in record numbers (which will create a HUGE retirement problem later on) just to pay the bills, taking cash advances on one credit card to pay another, kicking the home ATM as hard as possible for any loose change left in it, and pawning off everything they possibly can (including their dead grandfather’s gold teeth) and STILL not making ends meet, depression will set in. The DOW will fall hard, and the much needed, (long overdue correction) will take place in this country and the rush to get to the highest open window on Wall Street will begin!
This next depression will make 1929 look good! Bread & water were a lot cheaper then.
The “worst” is not over yet because there are still ARMs that are resetting, as well as gas prices that continue to rise week after week, now hitting $3.90/gallon here in California. I think this stimulus package will hurt us even more in the long run, and is a stupid idea. I actually thought G.W. Bush would be the next Reagan when he ran in 2000, but now it looks like he’ll be the next Hoover. I’ll be the first to apologize for my two votes for W, and have since left the Republican Party.
Anyways, the economy will work it’s way out of this mess IF the government gets out of the way and lets the financial markets correct themselves. But since this is an election year, expect the politicians to put bandaids on the problem, thus extending the economic problems into 2009.
I’m with the poster below, let scientists and doctors take over from the lawerys and MBA “holders” that are currently are running our government, and maybe we’ll get some people in charge that know what they’re doing.
We are being lied to again! How can this be over when so many people are loosing their jobs and their homes while the CEO’s of these companies are making unbelieveable salaries? What is the government doing about it – nothing that I see. The rich just keep getting richer and the poor just keep getting poorer, is that the new American way?
I did the smart thing not the risky thing. I looked at my income and choose a home that I could afford. I took a 30 year note fixed rate and pay my house payment and have reduced my credit cards in half in one year.
I pay my house payment twice a month half comes to being 2 weeks early. This setup offered by my mortgage company will pay my house off 7 years early.
Now though it sounds like the Democrats want to raise my taxes to pay for the people that took too big of risks and are now headed homeless.
I believe we give too much to people when they screw up and those people never learn.
Im glad Im not like that.
The US economy is collapsing. The bankers, managers and politicians cannot see it because they do not know enough about physics and thermodynamics. A few years ago I used to try to teach people what was happening. The problem is that they thought that I was crazy. Now that they have watched my predictions
come true for 2 1/2 years they think I am a lucky pessimist. Without a deep understanding of how wealth is generated you get affixed on meaningless things like money and symptoms of collapse.
An old friend that had become very frustrated with me a few years ago when I sold my homes and invested in gold and oil, called me on Thursday to tell me how right I was. Then he proceeded to make a bunch of predictions the were utterly ridiculous.
Moral of story, I will not try to explain what is happening without first testing a persons math, physics, thermo and history.
As before this will not get posted. Who is these jokers that think things are getting better. The fat cats have a new plan where I live ,lay off workers one week every month and make profits look good.CNN find someone to report the news thats in the same boat as the rest of us are in.get the truth out there. People with money will cover up and put sugar on anything to save thier buts on the stock market.We are the lower class and the money is not their with every thing going up. Stop the BULL
Hmmm,Nobody is talking about feed prices,the price of meat is going to go through the roof.Many people will get out of livestock causing a shortage of meat.Feed prices have NOT been passed on to the consumer,it costs more to raise than the farmer gets for his product.But this only DOOM and GLOOM,right?
Matt mrtg broker —thanks for the great insight. I am not related to any form of finance– either in the banking or mortgage business yet, totally understand and agree with your assesment. You articulated it nicely. Speaking from the heart I think our govt shouldn’t have helped bail the lending institutions. I believe they should have required the institutions to take the hit by changing the types of loans to re-finance at a more reasonable rate. This would still allow a marginal profit relative to the
borrower’s overqualification. I mean the lenders may not make as much off the re-adjusted rate, but still would make some. And at the same time those borrowers facing foreclosure wouldn’t anymore. Whats better, keeping people in their homes with a more affordable rate an no foreclosure,paying the debt……or what we are currently executing in the market????
I believe the “worst” is not over. How ever, what exactly does “worst” mean? I am excited to see the real estate market finally being corrected. We are getting close to the point where rental properties almost pencil and I can start buying cash flowing properties once again. Although loans are more difficult to obtain, there is still plenty of money out there if you actually have good credit and verifible income.
So, to me the “worst” is a good thing- a much needed correction in a real estate market that had been in La-La land!
Given that this crisis snow-balled over many months, gaining enough momentum to topple major financial firms, I don’t think it will just go away with an announcement by CNN that the worst is over. We took years getting here, and it’s going to be years getting back to where we were. Financial fiascoes of this magnitude don’t happen without systemic flaws. Those flaws have yet to be addressed, and until they are, it’s anybody’s guess.
Andy you clown. I’ll say it before and I’ll now say it again; you are an exceptional moron. You have single-handedly redefined the definition of knucklehead. No wait, I am the knucklehead for taking your retched bait and responding to your hose job of financial expertise gone narcissistic. I have got to get a life.
Not sorry for the people who overspent and have to pay it back on the terms they agreed to in the first place. Somebody call the wahbulance, ever heard of a recession? Did you pay attention in school? Ever heard of the Depression? Maybe you should think of the longterm effects of your actions. The worst is not over, because greedy Americans want everything and don’t want to pay for anything. It’s time to Pony up and pay the piper. Nobody made you buy so much worthless crap! You don’t deserve a bailout. I deserve a bailout, because I’m a middleclass American that can’t afford to waste my money, so I save it. Hoping one day to have enough money to buy your foreclosure. Give the money to us and I’ll put it in savings along with my stimulus check.
We would be foolish to think the worst is over. Everything I see seems to indicate that the troubles have just begun and some very rough days are ahead for all Americans.
Hey Andy from New Haven….Sounds like you’re either a congressman or part of the upper crust of management for some global company (i.e. not living in the real world) If you had to live or ever had to live on 30K a year or less you wouldn’t be spouting that arrogant senseless crap. No doubt a Bush/Cheney/Limbaugh lover. Unreal.
Yeah, sure… Now where did I put my bag of wooden nickels? BTW – the real US National Debt, if calc’d using GAAP rules, is more like $55 Trillion… So when does the AAA rating for US Treasuries go to junk status? Maybe the FED should be worried about that? Maybe that is what will cause our ” inflation” – a worthless dollar…
Cheney’s gonna nuke Iran
Bernake is bailing out speculaters who return the favor by investing low dollar money in commodities.
The taxpayers get stuck with both tabs.
Yeah life is ginger peachy…
gimme a break
What are you insane ….. is it over? Greed is like alcoholism, enough is never enough.
Oil Speculators, the modern day carpetbaggers are not finished ripping the nation apart. And yet Congress does nothing, but throw Band-Aids at us. We are barrowing the money from China to stimulate the economy by buying Chinese goods. Are you insane, Is it over?! Specking of crime how much of ripping is being done by organized crime not just here in the U.S. but by OPEC. The attack on 9/11 by whoever, and I won’t say here who I think was behind that attack without fear of being shipped off to a Polish CIA prison. Gasoline, food prices is not slowing down. Ethanol is a scam. The housing debacle didn’t need to happen. The Cheney Oil War didn’t need to happen. Is it over? Not until many of our Congressmen are hanging from bridges across this once mighty nation.
The economy is definitely going to get much worse before it gets better. Although the “credit crunch” may be over, the foreclosures are only at the tip of the iceberg, unless there is some type of major bailout of defaulting homeowners.
Andy, just because you got a nice raise and bought your BMW doesn’t mean that there aren’t many people really having a tough time. You need to look at other neighborhoods and not just your own.
Are you joking? The bubble has not even bursted yet. Wait till Dow goes to 9000 and houses loose 40% of their peak…
The worst may be over, what planet are your from? Housing has yet to hit it’s low point, some places that depend on the housing market, like Phoenix are bleeding! Wall Street has not yet started the massive firings that are to come.
Oil prices are predicted to hit $4.00 dollars a gallon, expanding economies in China and India are putting greater demands on food and commodities, thus increasing prices.
The war in Iraq continues to increase our debt dependence, and the value of our dollar makes investment in the U.S. a less then desirable prospect.
Also, let us not forget the American Psych which has been quite battered over the last few months.
My friend go out and see how this is affecting middle class and lower income Americans. You need a lesson in reality.
The business clients my firm does business with have become more and more focused on cutting costs. Not a good sign.
Budget cuts and layoffs at my wife’s work.
Cost of fuel and food going up.
Student loan companies cutting back or going out of business due to the credit crunch.
While over the long haul the economy will pull through, I don’t think we’ve turned the corner yet. There’s more that’s going to shake out.
The stock market might go up. Who knows, maybe even the “economy” will go up.
But since all (the math says every single bit) of the growth in this nation in the last two decades all happened in the top few % of the population, the rest of us are starting to not care very much if the stock market goes up, or if the government numbers say our economy is growing.
As one of the many in the US who only has money from the sweat of my brow, I know that my personal economy has only grown in numbers. I earn more per job, I spend more for gas, rent, food and clothes. I know that I can buy less with my labor then I used to be able to. Since I don’t borrow money, I can’t be convinced that I am really richer. I know what I can buy with an hour’s work.
Don’t mistake this for a complaint. I have a roof, I have food, I have friends. I don’t have debt or a house full of junk. Nor am I looking for either.
But there is simply no way I am going to buy that our life style isn’t on the way down. No matter how high the stock market goes.
how can the worst be over America is built on credit so if banks don’t lend people don’t have money to spend. When they talk about that there were new jobs created its mostly in retail and restaurant business yea 8 dollars an hour goes along way.
You GO Andy in New Haven. More DEBT = MORE MONEY for the BANKS to LOAN!! Just remember Andy, there’s always plenty of shopping carts, sleeping bags and bridges to sleep under in the event you lose job!!
It’s all up from here! The “housing crisis” was caused by the subprime programs and loans adjusting up, not a normal “housing crash”. Declining median prices are due to the foreclosures and from the readjustments of loans. When the majority of sales are from the foreclosures, the median price will be lower! Prices will rise fast. Also the dollar gaining strength will get investors back. Commodity investors that are driving up the oil prices will soon sell as they are creating a “oil bubble”. Check your 401k – aren’t you close to where you were before the decline?
Optimistic view, can you tell me where Paul R. La Monica, gets the drugs?
Does he live in Disney land or Wonder Land
While there is no doubt that we are a nation who is currently experiencing real economic challenges (errant mortgage industry and an over dependency on a foreign resource – oil), I do believe the worst is behind us.
I am personally bullish on the foreseeable future and believe that we will experience steady growth and strengthening of the US dollar as these markets correct and as long as we (including our elected leaders in government) learn from our mistakes.
Over the last several years over 1 trillion dollars were taken out of houses and dumped into the economy.The housing ATM is closed.The only good news is the weak dollar which helps exports,WHERE IS THE GROWTH GOING TO COME FROM?????????
Ha! I like this, this is funny. You see doom and gloom stories and sunshine and lolipops. But one thing is for certain. Oil and gas prices will only go up. Here’s a little info: did you know in mexico they pay just $2.00 a gallon for disel. (Venezuelan oil no doubt). And in Iran they pay 0.15 to 0.20 cents a liter for gas! (thats 0.75 cents a gallon). Who’s exploiting now? As for the economy, I’m not sure where its headed. The way I see it, it could go either way.
New Haven Andy -
Wow getting a 10% pay raise working the drive thru window is a bonus. And finding a nickel on the street gave you a net 7% return on your investment portfolio. Only if the rest of America could be as cool as you dude!
“Oh, I’m confident as a gazelle in lion country with the wind blowing the wrong way…” Thank you SwilliamP for the best Friday metaphor yet. I’m still chuckling. I hope your writing will continue to grace the CNN.money feedback entries.
If “The credit crunch” continues, I am confident that “helicopter Ben” is going to print/dump more cash on the street until he runs out of ink…
Awww, the poor doom and gloomers backed the losing horse, came out in the wrong, yet they’re STILL clinging to hope of an all out economic collapse?
I’ll save you the suspense … it’s not happening. In 6 months, you’ll be as wrong as you are now and as wrong as you were 6 months ago. Not only is the sky NOT falling, but things are CLEARLY on the upswing. Throwing out blanket statements like “Unemployment is out of control! Inflation is running amok! Consumer spending is tanking!” … are not only flat out wrong, but irresponsible. The exaggerations and lies of the doom and gloomers make me sick.
As far as the anecdotal references being thrown around on this thread about poor Billy Bob who got fired from the factory … just wanted to share my story …
I got a 10% base pay increase in January, bought a new BMW in March and just refinanced my house two weeks ago at 5.75%. Plus, my mutual funds have gained 7% in the past 60 days.
I don’t understand what everyone is crying about. Is it because you’re paying 5 bucks more per week at the pump? Grow up, you spoiled brats.
In response to Tony of Florida, I think you might be a little “blue sky, no clouds” a little early. Your team sports analogy has a flaw, sure there’s sometimes different endings, but remember for one or the other team the ending is a “disaster”. Many are still worried with good reason about their work, house payments and where they’ll get the extra money to pay the gas and food bills that are reaching your “blue sky”. I am not convinced that the worst of the credit crunch is behind us, I think a lot of hurt is still to come. As for the stimulis checks, they will just pay debt, although that is helpful. Companies are reporting better results only becuase many started cutting back on inventory, employees, and using other accounting slight of hand to post lower though better than expected earnings and often a little better revenue; but higher revenue and lower profit also indicates something was cut, overhead or product price. I think the market indices are looking at any “kind of good news” and over-reacting, just like they did in the buildup to the quartly earnings reports period, but in the opposite direction. I going to sit tight, invest more conservatively-wisely, spend as little as possible and wait until I see a “lot more blue in the sky.”
To Tony in Ft. Lauderdale: Yes, there can be $10 gas without salaries keeping up. Unfortunately. And the 1930’s differed in a way that could be significant. People had a sense of shared pain and sacrifice that helped them survive. My grandparents told me of small businesses where employees were offered a choice between layoffs or everyone staying but with a 40-50% pay cut. And they chose the pay cut so no one would be pushed out of the boat. And regarding life savings and retirement dollars – what are those things? I have none, and not because I was lazy. Because of years of layoffs and helping family worse off than me. Am afraid the ending to this story might not be as happy as we’d all like to write it.
Life savings and retirement account dollars? Are you kidding? We don’t have any. What we have is a mountain of debt.
What I am confident about is that Wall Street speculators are capable to inflate their bubbles in any time and any economic conditions.
But where is this pyramid schema going to go when the real volume comes and people start cashing their 401Ks ?
Hope the Fed and the Banks are ready for the next wave of mortgage defaults.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8
Solution – Government needs to put the laser on mortgage rates and act ahead of the next wave of defaults. Just cutting rates arbitrailly has maybe given a spark to the stock market but has not helped the average consumer. The rate cuts have done nothing to improve 30 year mortgage rates, we are at the same or a higher rate compared to a year ago(Jumbo loans are significantly higher) due to the added risk premiums in making home loans. The Government proposed plans have only been to help a select few, wether it be those already in foreclosure or help the builders, what about addressing all the homeowners? The Government needs to guarantee mortgages which will lower rates by extracting the risk premium baked into today’s rates and they need to offer a stimulus package directed towards banks that make home loans. If the Government would offer incentives for Banks/FNMA/FMAC/FHA holding mortgages to freeze current ARM rates for all homeowners(with no requalifying for the homeowner or Loan-to-Value(LTV) requirements), offer historic low interest rates in order to convert existing ARMs to 30 year Fixed Mortgages(No requalifying or LTV requirements) and provide additional incentives for banks to offer low rates on new home purchases. By providing this as an incentive as opposed to forcing the bank to rewrite mortgage agreements this will ultimately keep rates low, as opposed to forcing the banks to renegotiate their terms. Also the banks would know by renegoiting the loan at a lower rate then it will have a less risk of default. Also new loan programs will need to be developed, the only loan programs offered right now are Full Document Loans at reasonable rates, unfortunately wealth is also created by Self Employed indiviuals, therefore we need to develop a new loan program that can verify income for these type of borrower on a % gross income reported basis. I cannot go into the complexity of this loan program in this comment, but as for all the loan programs that have been stripped from the market(some rightfully so) the current loan program does not fit all borrowers shoe size. The low rates and additional loan programs will increase demand for housing. Right now there is no demand for housing, only folks in the housing market game are distressed sellers and distressed asset buyers(aka Banks). How much will home prices fall? Price is point on where supply meets demand, as supply decreases and demand increases then home prices will turn the corner. The catalyst for this is low interest rates and getting these low interest rate loans into the consumer hands via new loan programs. So stating that we have made it through the credit crisis, is without merit, currently with rising rates, rising inventories of unsold/foreclosed homes and less demand for housing.
reading all these posts of doom and gloom has made me want to remind all people that one of the best qualities of this country is that nothing is set in stone, problems that are new or seem similar from the past will almost definitly end with a different result. using a sports analogy why is it when you put 2 teams together many times over a year you get different endings? same players? same talent? same game rules? DIFFERENT ENDING! just because this problem looks like the 1930’s its the same game but surely different ending. creativity has a way of fixing problems we never thought could be fixed without the world is ending theory, im in south florida where the housing prices skyrocketed to where people used to be scared they will never afford a home if they didnt buy now!! or they felt they could make $100G overnight!! as usual both emotionally charged hypothesis were wrong. free thinking has a way of balancing ignorance and reality. do we really think we will be paying $10 a gallon of gas without salaries going up to keep pace? the middle class is the vast majority of people in this country, what the middle class can afford is where prices eventually balance to in the long run. and before i get poked at for the ever rising seperation between rich and poor remember its all a matter of compounding. the rich have the tool to coumpound faster than the poor so that will alaways be the case but also remember when we complain of a walstreet bailout….where are all of our life savings and retirement account dollars sitting?
What planet are you from?
Gas prices are heading through the roof. Food prices are not far behind.
It’s still impossible to refinance because. One company after another is going bankrupt. Unemployment is rising. I guess in some ways it’s good for morale that the stock market jockies like yourself continue to delude themselves.
Confident?!? 1100 people laid off at the plant down the road, effective in May. Another layoff this week, here. My office location being colsolidated. $47 to fill my tank. House in repayment plan to avert foreclosure. Oh, I’m confident as a gazelle in lion country with the wind blowing the wrong way…
With the indices only 10% below ALL TIME HIGHS, the worst is certainly not over. Geopolitical turmoil, hungry people starting riots all over the world, gap between rich and poor widening in the civilized Western world, more and more poor people even in the US, spending being reduced by higher gasprices and tighter credit, a government – no a nation thats basically bankrupt, companies that soon will see the effects of all this mentioned seeing profit diminishing and starting masssive lay-offs. Hold on to your hats, it’s going to get rough. Normally over optimistic Americans will get very, very pessimistic.
OR NOT! I love the bravado of “I told you to buy in when the Dow was at 11,600.” Well, if one is a trader, that would have been good advice and you may get another chance.
Just like it would have been good advice to buy/trade into the Dow at $10,000 back in Feb. 2000 through June 2002. For about nine different times it would have been good short term advice, except of course the last buy in June of 2002, which was not real kind to the traders since the Dow finally tanked in Oct of 2002 at below $7,500.
So I look forward to more exclamations like “Buy in at $11,600!” or whatever. But for me, I think I’ll just be patient and wait until the housing bubble/credit insolvency/Bernanke’s commodity bubble/peak oil crisis/others? play themselves out and the Dow bottoms in the distant future (late 2008 or 09?). Patience.
This is nothing more than wishful thinking. We all constantly hear from supposed “experts” who always spoonfeed us with happy-talk and milquetoast – some “institute” pays them to spout this stuff.
Have we ever seen a real estate expert tell us that it’s a bad time to buy? Of course not; they always make a point of telling us that “there will never be a better time to buy”. Whoever is Fed Chairman will always say “fjgj dkujm…” (what’d he say?).
Let’s get real: The world’s financial marketers have busted big-time; it will be a long time sorting-out this disaster.
I didn’t read the others’ comments, but I want to add that I work in the mortgage industry. Until the end of January I was in sales, but then my (now former) employer shut down production of the loan products I was selling, and I was laid off. They hired me back three weeks later to manage part of the loan portfolio I helped to create. I have put more of my own customers into foreclosure than I care to admit, and more is on the way. I don’t think the worst is over — although I do think we will start to see the trough sometime in the next six months, from which the recovery will begin.
The worst may be over. For who? Certanily not for me and my boys. i was recently laid off from one of the largest Insuarance companies in the worl after 15 years of service. I have a 13 and 10 year old to support on what was my income. Gas is at $3.53 per gallon, food prices are skyrocketing,jobs are at a premium and guess what I am 60 years old.
So to all who think we are coming out of any recession or depression, think again.
Thank you President Bush and thanks to all the Senators and Congressmen and women who appear not to give a damn about the little guy.
As may have said, it is too early to claim it is over. The stimulus package is a temporary fix to a structural problem. The implications of the real estate meltdown are more severe than the one in the 90’s with the savings and loans. We also have a surge in consumption overseas which is pushing commodity prices higher. Thus, internally we continue to have a weak economy while external forces are also hitting the economy with high energy prices fueled by a declining dollar. We will be in a situation where the economy will be stagnant for a while where GDP may grow around 1% and that will be after we come of the current recession. There is no discretionary income left as food and energy prices remain high with no significant relief insight.
And one more thing… (climbing back on the soap box) How come time after time I have to hear the media drone on about “forget about market timing, it never works” but the media itself does the same thing by contributing stories like “The worst may be over.” Like the FED, the media just needs to report facts and stay out of leading the markets.
No, the credit crunch hasn’t over. With the rise of unemployment and price of everything, the prime borrowers would start to default on their mortgages. That would kill lot of banks and those who bought the MBS. When the prime borrowers default, the fed’s trick of swapping bank NPL for cash would no longer work because it’s in the TRILLION! Too big to bail out.
As long as the issues like high unemployment and hyper inflation haven’t been fixed, the credit crunch will continue.
If you think the dollar tanking is a problem, then you’re in for a big surprise! The dollar tanking leads to inflation. The dollar RISING leads to companies laying off workers left and right in the US. 70% of the economy is fueled by people spending, so when people start losing their jobs the spending is really going to crimp down. Ben & Co have put our collective “mules” in a corner now. They have fed the inflation beast first with the low dollar. Now comes supporting the dollar and axing jobs!
I sincerely hope not.
There is still an excess of waste, greed and stupidity in this economy, I will be very sorry if we don’t have a dramatically worse economy.
Let’s not forget, we still have to deal with the coming Credit Card crash.
Let’s face it folks, this economy is seriously out of whack. Better to have a deep recession now than something much worse down the road.
The roots of this economy are starved. The canopy of the plant is getting all of the food. It can’t go on lik ethis forever. Remember how the stinking Ray-Gun-Bush era went bad for most.
The worst is not over. There is another wave of loans due to reset.
The market is high due to choort selling.
Food and gas are high due to speculators looking for a return on their investment (since these crooks no longer want to invest in risky securities).
The only thing that will help is to raise interest rates and quell this immoral speculation that is starving people around the globe.
Money ISN’T everything.
Are you kidding? I don’t know where you may live but here in sunny FLORIDA things are not so bright. The economy is nowhere near recovering. Unemployment is extremely high, gas is 3.60+, food prices are climbing and there is no help in sight. Please don’t say the stimulus check will help us, it will only help China (who we borrowed the money from and who we will buy whatever goods will be purchased from) what a joke Bush pulled over on us with that one. Until we pull together and say enough is enough it will continue to decline.
Absolutely.. I work for a mortgage firm and we are continuing to expand and we are originating more loans this quarter than most of last year! The economy is extremely susceptible to people’s fears. If you believe we are in a recesssion, people will naturally pull back on their expenditures which causes ripples in every sector! I know there are many people directly effected by job loss and foreclosures but we need to have confidence in the dollar and in the American market! IT WILL GET BETTER
I have to agree with most of what is being said here. Wall Street is being helped at the expense of Main Street. I was doing great in September of 2007 until the Feds decided they need to bail out Wall Street. Now I find myself having to cut back on cable, clothing, food, movies, basicly life. I am adjusting – I did not say happy. But because of my cut backs as with everyone eles companies are starting to hurt. Does Ben not realize that by hurting the Middle Class he will destroy the economy? The “thing he is trying to fix”. I use that loosly, the only thing he is trying to fix is his fello bankers who got us into this mess in the first place. I was always under the impression the Federal Reserves job was to keep inflation in check, not create it at the expense of Wall Street.
#1, we need to put an end to the “lifetime” representatives in our government
#2, CEO’s, CIO’S etc making these huge paychecks and severage packages need to stop! They all need to take pay cuts and put that money into their employee’s who are loyal and keep the companies running.
#3, There is no way the “worst” is over!
this is a joke right? does this guy write for the onion?
how they hell can the worse be over and for who?
later today i’ll ask the 6 people i know who are losing ther homes if the “worse is over” and i’ll get back to you.
why can’t we just tell it like it is??? here’s how the headline should read in case you care:
THE WOSRT MAY BE OVER FOR WALLSTREET.
the one thing i’ve learned of late is all that matters to anybody in the government is wallstreet.
All is great! Rejoice everybody! We’re in the USA! Have you forgotten this? We have to realize that it’s not Heaven, but it’s the closest place to Heaven on earth. You’ll not find any better place anywhere and if anybody thinks different, they are welcome to investigate and travel. This is still a free country and we’re free to do what we need for ourselves. Dollar is the best money ever existed so far. Real financial markets exist actually only here. Other are just trying to copy us. The economy is the biggest and most diverse. There is only one answer to the question of “Are you better off now or whenever?” The answer is “Yes”. God bless the USA!
The worst is in front of the American people. The worst seems over the for banks except the finanical mass destruction weapon never causing any harm. In not a such remote senario, when the chain reaction starts, it would be beyond the control of any central banks in the world.
No. This is a Polyanna view. A smattering of semi-good news for the investor class has very little long-term impact on working families (by working, I mean a minimum of two people working full time gigs and still falling behind). Let me see signs of the food crisis easing, long-lived conflicts/wars ending, energy costs falling, energy alternatives being explored vigorously, panicked gold prices falling, and population control becoming a topic of discussion, and I’ll show real optimism.
Mr. La Monica:
Thanks for the good news! I am so relieved to learn that the Federal Reserve actions appear to have successfully rescued Wall Street and the banking system. I’m sure that with the restoration of health to our under-regulated, debt-burdened markets that us little people can look forward to the trickle down of $$ again. The sacrifices of the little people to our market gods have been well worthwhile. I’m just wondering though, does this good news imply that Congress should to back pedal on its plans for emergency, full-fledged tax-payer bailouts of investors and businesses via “Foreclosure Prevention” legislation? Can we look forward to your coverage of this reasonable analysis?
With approximately 70% of the US economy hinging upon consumer spending, all eyes should be on what consumers are doing.
So far spending is holding up but with signs of inflation and credit card balances and delinquencies at record highs, will the consumer be able to spend us out of this rough patch?
Well see…
There is no way we are close. You say “if the Fed focuses on inlation” that would be a good thing right now. In normal times I’d agree that would be good for us all. But given where the “REAL” inflation rate has been over the past few years in our economy we will be back in a stagflation environment in no time. Higher rates will lead to a depression and inflation will continue to be high. Credit card and auto related securitized debt instruments will be the next concern. There is no quick fix here. This further deterioration of consumer health will lead to more housing woes and the eventual need to bailout Freddie and Fnma. Mortgage lending to the average Joe will cease.
Our position in the global economy and power structure has changed since we squandered Clinton’s surplus. We are now at the mercy of China, Japan, Arab nations, Iran, Opec, Russia, etc. Our deficit will continue to explode.
My vote is NOT confident. Bernanke keeps dropping the treasury rate to: a) keep the yield curve from inverting and b) to keep consumers spending.
It is working for (a) but the consumers are tapped out buying necessities like food and fuel. The tax rebate stimulus program is like putting a band aid on a severed limb.
Staying the course, the best case scenario may be that the US goes through a very long (Japan-like) recession, while other nation’s get stronger and fitter.
Andy from New Haven (Voice of Ignorance) – Can you see past your nose? Take the blinders off pal. Your dollar isn’t worth any more than mine or the next guy.
I don’t know what kind of weed your economic analysts are smoking, but in my humble opinion the average American has only just begun to feel the pain. Oil prices that have risen and will continue to escalate, wages that have stagnated, home values that have dropped, high paying jobs that now reside in overseas markets – the list goes on and on, and yet for some reason a “stimulus” check for 600.00 to 1500.00 means that clear sailing and blue skies are on the horizon. Get real, and start talking to real people about what is really going on. Talking heads who never had a real job in their life are a major source of carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases!
To Duane of Washington DC. It would be nice if you knew what you were talking about when you said that farmers were hoarding grain for ethanol production. Many farmers in the fly-over areas of the midwest are not huge corporate farmers. They are just people that are trying to make a living like everyone else. Prices to plant a crop are five times higher than they were only a couple of years ago so believe me that no big profits are being made by most farmers. I for one couldn’t be more pleased than to know that the grain that I raised was used to feed the masses. By the way if the rains continue to fall in the grain producing areas of the midwest you can expect the greedy farmers to receive more for a bushel of corn, if we could only get get into the field to plant it.
This article is way off… I think it should have been titled “The Eye of the Storm” or “The Calm Before the Storm”
The worst is over?????????? In common english, NFW!
Consumers are deflated, job growth is stagnant at best, credit cards have replaced HELOC’s and you can’t find decent jobs w/ a decent wage. Groceries are skyrocketing due to our ill timed ethanol experiments, world hunger/panic has made the front page several times in the last week, our major corporations are partly owned by foreign conglomerates, oil refuses to stop rising, the Fed is palying nursemaid to the top financial firms and the dollar hit new low after new low. Consumer credit will continue to tighten once the never talked about yet massive credit card default comes. Our major industries have no place to peddle their products, our national debt is a national disgrace, their is no help for people in foreclosure (unless, as one brokerage guy put it “unless you are blue and have two left feet”. The additional hundreds of millions of dollars in tax rebates will not make a dent in what is going on and will fuel more hairbrained schemes to stimulate the economy and push this nation not only deeper into debt, but one step closer to a true depression that will impact this country (and the world) for decades to come. And silly us, we worry if an unelectable candidate wears a flag pin!
Is the worst overe? Yes and no. In the US, the worst is almost definitely over. The doom and gloom crowd wil get increasingly shrill over the next few months as their numbers dwindle and tehy feel they have to shout louder and louder to be heard, buut on teh whole, the worst is over in teh US. The tide of panic is ebbing, and teh majority of people will slowly come to the realization that they over panicked, the world didn’t end and the mass hysteria was all a little silly. Is the worst over for the global markets? No. In fact for places like the EU, it’s just beginning. We saw that EU banks are just starting their round of write downs and they’re hit with teh double whammy of massive inflation caused by the falling dollar/Euro bubble, and all the same deflationary pressurs caused by the EU housing bubble (which was bigger than the US bubble) popping. The see saw is going to go the opposite way and things in the EU and Asia will be pretty ugly later this year.
james’ comment about outsourcing is correct in principle that we outsource everything. The stage we’re entering now is where we outsource the losses and pain.
Bernanke is like a car with one gear – “inflate”; other than hope, what is the basis for saying the worst is over – because Wall Street is fat and happy at everyone else’s expense? I am glad the investors in Merrill Lynch got their dividend but is that much reason to think that anyone but Wall Street is happy? How much of their profit comes from driving up the price of oil in the commodities market, not something we should be glad about. Steve V. has it right.
Mr. La Monica, I couldn’t disagree with you more. We are far from being out of the woods!
Mr. Bernanke, who doesn’t seem to be a history fan, obviously, continued to slash interest rates for a resulting brief pause in a downward spiral of the US dollar. All the while our very own CNN encouraging investors to put their money into companies that deal with commodities, not commodities themselves.
To boot, Mr. Bush signing into history the biggest mistake the energy department could ever fathom.
Corn and Soy Beans at an all time high? For crying out loud, those are just two of many consumable items the public relies on for food. Now they are being harvested for E85, which costs more energy to produce than what we would potentially see to power our vehicles.
Maybe this is what the American public needed to see in order to look elsewhere than the middle east for consumable energy.
-Maybe what we need to do is invest more into R&D (research and developement) of alternative fuels.
-Maybe what we should do for the time being is tap into some of these large domestic oil fields in American and Canadian waters that the EPA and Green Peace forbid because of potential pollution and/or damage to the ecosystem… OH, I FORGOT…commercial fishing has already done that but no one is doing anything to regulate, for that matter put a stop to overfishing, to save what few and dwindeling hatcheries and coral reefs we still have.
Further more, the housing market is a far cry from being done on the nose dive. I don’t blame the average American for wanting to persue Manifest Destiny. I do blame the average american for living beyond his/her means while trying to persue such a dream. The public has not seen the light at the end of the tunnel for the troubled housing market, Mr. La Monica; the fun is just beginning.
Hail NO I’m not confident! Corporate is not finished screwing the American people yet. Oil prices are up because they’re backing us into a corner to get our approval to release environmentally protected oil reserves in America. In my area oil wells are popping up everywhere. A local company that is a subsidiary of HALIBURTON is doing a booming business. GEE….why could that be? I sure hope the chess game the Federal Reserve is playing works, for the sake of Main Street and just not Wall Street. GET THE DOLLAR OUT OF THE TOILET MR. B.!! Once the dollar gains some strength we may, just may, see some improvements on Main Street. Do you really think the mortgage crisis is behind us? I don’t think so!!
I wonder if any of these idiotic cheerleader pundits are willing to put their jobs on the line for this bit of nonsense. I bet next quarter when things have proved to be worse, they will regurgitate this article. No one is ever held accountable for being sooooo wrong sooooo often.
The fundamentals are still negative, and who says the credit crunch is really over? I don’t see reason for long-term optimism here.
After taking a 25% pay cut at the end of 06 I knew I needed to ramp up my small side business so I’d have another “iron in the fire”. Well that iron is cooling fast. Discretionary spending has all but dried up. Around here, in SE MI, people are scared shipless! HUNDREDS of thousands of manufacturing jobs have been sent overseas but the sociopaths that run our country and major corporations. Those good paying job are NEVER coming back as John McCain said. Some might say that other areas will pick up the slack. Which one? IT? Chrysler just outsourced it’s IT to Tata (of all people). Many other companies are doing the same. Thats the beauty of computers and the internet. Right? Health care? Our company and many other small companies are going to HSAs. At our company we have a $3K deductible. At 45 I had pneumonia a few months back. Urgent care said go to the ER. Told them “I can’t afford a $5K bill!” Told them to give me some anti-biotics and I’ll go home. I also changed a perscripotion from a $300/mth name brand to a $6/mth generic!!! If hundreds of thousands of people don’t spend $8K/year like I just stopped doing, don’t you think that’ll have a MAJOR impact on the health care industry? The doctor that lives across the street from me thinks so. I ask, what other industries will support our std of living? …….. thats what I thought.
This isn’t your dad’s recession. This one is a global, socio-economic adjustment. people in India and China will feel like kings making the new $7/hr “world pay”. For me, it’s gonna leave a mark!
The worst is over? HAH!! The worst is not even on the horizon yet….
Gas is skyrocketing, food costs are soaring, oh and millions of loans are about to reset themselves at higher rates and payments…
Foreclosures are climbing. Short sales are now common place- But the worst may be over- Do not be fooled by a week of somewhat positive numbers..
In the past three weeks, major banks have written off billions of dollars.. When you look at the situation on a weekly basis you are fooled very easily into believing things are improving..
Even rice is being fought for in grocery stores. Now Fannie Mae says no one gets a loan for 5 years if they short sale or foreclose.. That means homeownership will decrease substanstially…
Things are not getting better- Oil is over $115 a barrell which means prices will soar in the coming months..
The worst is not even occuring yet. To use a hurricane reference, we are going to be hit by a Category 5, and right now we are only experiencing the outer bands…
Well its good to know that the Fed has Wall Streets back even if it’s at the expense of Main Street!
Way to go Ben! Reward the irresponsible and the speculators. Go figure…….
Oh I’m sure that “inflation will moderate over time” how many years are you going to use that line?
Let’s be honest Tom. This stimulus package is specifically designed to improve banks bottom lines. Look at all the surveys — 75% of this money will go to savings or paying down credit debt. Why do you think the banks are suddenly acting like they’re out of the woods?
If the government wanted people to spend this money they would issue the funds in the form of debit cards. This is nothing more than a $150B bailout for banks, elaborately disguised as a benefit for taxpayers. Hint: it’s inflation, stupid.
Our economy is seriously sick, but the real illness spreads far beyond the contagion of the housing & subprime sectors. When I look at the deterioration in the quality of life of average Americans and the unbounded greed of the top percentile it makes me sick. We have corruption at the highest levels of our government that extend far beyond party lines.
The worst is not over, unless you are referring to the populace’s ignorance about what is being done to them. In the short term there will be suffering. But in the long run I am optimistic that the collapse of our corrupt financial system will revitalize our nation. Soon the people will realize that economic growth is driven by production of tangible goods, not by the false paper gains recognized by Wall Street.
I never lost confidence in the markets and the economy in the first place. The markets and the economy have and always will have periods of adjustment. The global economy has changed the way the U.S. economy operates. If we feel strongly enough about the way our government runs the country, we need to let our local and national government officials know by writing letters to them. Also, we need to educate ourselves about how the economy and the markets work.
I am not confident the worst is over. I am worried about the food situation. For too long everybody has been way too complacent about our food supply. Somehow, magically, food appears on the store shelves. What has bothered me for a long time is city dwellers’ attitudes of superiority towards their country cousins and how farming has been denigrated as a profession and way of life. We’ve forgotten that, by far, the most important thing in any economy is bringing in the harvest. I hope I’m wrong but I think city folk are about to find out that you can’t eat money.
By reading these blogs, obviously we have some economists here whose knowledge exceeds any “professional” opinions that I have read in the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, or any other slanted and opinionated hogwash newsource in the last few months.
There are alot of people here expressing their opinion that know we are faced with a “correction” in our economy.
There is no choice other than DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION or more HYPERINFLATIONARY moves to keep false profits on the books.
This choice is all that we have due to greed in the high finance industry, and the inability of the American workforce to keep up with loans and cost of living expenses with their shrinking earnings.
Did they think they could bleed the patient to death, then offer a tax-rebate (1/4 ounce of blood) to fix the problem?
So if the dollar was strengthening, what was the excuse for higher oil price as of today? It went up to $119 again.
Which markets are we talking about?
I am sure that Ben will dump another big bag of money if the banks screaming about it. Yeah, I am confident about that “market”…
I love it. The doom & gloomers are in full spin, refusing to admit that they were wrong.
Face it people … smooth sailing ahead. I hope you took my advice when I told you to buy in when the Dow was at 11,600.
I think not. Gas prices in my area have risen $.50 a gallon in the last two months, with the latest $.04 increase this morning. My grocery bill is up over $25 per week for a single person. My commission check for this month will be the lowest in my employment history. Boy, I can’t wait for that economy boosting stimulus check. Thanks, George, for too little, too late.
“The government and media like to talk about this tax stimulus like it is going to save the economy and blast the US out of recession. Those checks amount to nothing and they will be gone from the consumers pocket in weeks. Helping only the fill their tanks a couple of times and catch up on late credit card payments.”
Yeah, that’s the point. The govt. WANTS you to spend the money, because saving it doesn’t “stimulate” anything — other than bank’s bottom lines.
Confident? Not no, but hell no! The government and Wall Street are trying to spin that only the credit and banking sector is pulling the economy down and that everything else is growing. This is a load of crap.
Gas and food prices are soaring. So much so that in just a few months, some oepole won’t be able to afford food, much less drive their cars. This isn’t going away anytime soom. And the worst is not behind up on the credit crunch. Responsible borrowers, who should be able to obtain mortgages, cannot get loans, despite how much cash infusion lenders have received.
Good things all the “worst is yet to come” folks can base their opinions on data. I agree that this is a “things aren’t as bad as we thought” rally, and that doesn’t necessarily mean things are good. But that’s still a positive development.
Good signs: OK profits, strengthening dollar (which will pull down gas prices if it keeps going), and, most importantly, the sky hasn’t yet fallen. Oh, and rebate checks come out soon.
Buck up, campers. Once the Fed starts focusing on inflation again, prices will be better.
I don’t think that the worst is over. I think that there are layers of this thing. I know several people who’s mortgages have not reset now, but they still owe more on their homes than they are worth. These people can’t refinance their homes into managable fixed rate mortgages, or take advantage of the low rates. Many of them have pre-pay penalties.
Also, with I think that gas will go past $4 a gallon. This will have an effect on food more (especially since farmers are hording the corn for biofuels – what a load of crap that is – and artificially driving the price of corn and wheat up because they won’t grow more…Who ever thought that farmers would lead by the example of the Sopranos?).
People will cut back more and more. I don’t see how companies will be able to survive if no one is buying. The only deal is to foreign people who have a stronger dollar. Will America be the new Mexico or Bahamas to Europeans? Hungry American children begging for euros to shine your shoes…or worse?
“Worse is over”? WTF. Only someone who doesn’t understand the current credit crisis can make a stupid comment like that.
The only reason things have seemed better is because Bernanke is swapping (buying) billions of dollars of worthless debt from banks. However, that will soon be coming to an end. Either the fed will trigger an unprecedented dollar crisis and hyperinflation, or it will stop propping up financial institution resulting in deflation and another great depression.
I am hoping for another depression, as the alternative involves giving billions to greedy, stupid bankers and inflating the middle class into poverty. I also believe hyperinflation would permanently destroy America’s position as the center of the financial world.
As the PA system requests that Mr. La Monica please return from lunch may I point out that the residential real estate mess is deepening, commercial real estate is on the precipice (how about entire strip malls sitting empty here in Jacksonville) oil prices are shuttering airlines, the big banks are writing off tens of billions–quarterly–etc., etc.
An oasis in the middle of the desert doesn’t mean your out of the desert.
Can’t we just let the market fall already and get it over with. It seems were just pushing off the inevitable. I don’t understand how markets can reach positively to a couple major companies posting profits that were made a few months ago. Can the market see that in the last few months people have really cut back? Funny how you don’t see much news on the companies that are closing and laying off people. Oh I forgot that 3-4 major companies employ 80% of Americans (being sarcastic). It seems markets are looking for anything to make a quick buck but ultimately we are all going to suffer. Shame on greed!
Who care about the markets? We still have not rebuilt our infrastructure, recovered our manfacturing base, or done anything to improve Main Street USA. UNemployment is still going up, and so are prices, and the dollar is tanking. No, the worst is not over, but nobody in DC has the body parts to do the right things and they waste time and tax money playing politics!
Not in the least. There are issues affecting the middle and lower class that will ripple deeply for years. In addition, the worst for these people is not over – it is just beginning. The increased cost of fuel has only just begun to be felt by individual families. It is going to get much uglier before it even hints at getting better. Let’s at least be honest – the world is NOT just about the health of the financial market rich elites.
The government and media like to talk about this tax stimulus like it is going to save the economy and blast the US out of recession. Those checks amount to nothing and they will be gone from the consumers pocket in weeks. Helping only the fill their tanks a couple of times and catch up on late credit card payments.
I am not a pessimist, but the worst is yet to come for the housing problem and foreclosures. Only worsening the problem is the nearly impossible task of worthy homebuyers to get a mortgage.
The fed has given money to the banks in truck loads at no interest, and they have passed almost no of that value on to the american consumer. Yet they use our tax money to fix their bottom line.
I am still not confident. All of the news coming out lately would ordinarily be bad. However, since it is not as bad as we thought, the market rises. (This is the definition of a sucker rally). It is sort of like “your house only burned down but the garage was saved” – woohoo!
By the end of Q2, the full effects of $4 gas and rising unmeployment will have no where to hide and you should ask this question again.
Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.
Not at all. These are just minor “UPs” before the major “DOWN”! This may be only the first or second inning of a long game.
Not at all, no one seems to be worried about the middle class which is the hardest hit. I can barely pay bills due to the increase in gas and food. 8 months ago I was doing good, now I can not make it on my pay. Our so called Government needs to get a clue!
This is dangerous BS!!! Bernanke has started dangerous precedence in bailing companies as well as standing like a wall behind the markets. Why even have a market? Next time there’s a slump in economy the Feds better put up another 200B or whatever it takes to keep the market in place?
This is BS to the extreme. Companies that screwed up should have gone down and if the investors are immature or stuipid, let the market go down!!
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I ran across this article by Paul La Monica in September of 2008. As everyone knows La Monica and other so called “experts” got it dead wrong. When will they actually do some journalistic investigation rather than parrot what all the economists and other pundits say. Today Lehman is filing for bankruptcy protection. The economy is not recovering. Not sure how La Monica couldn’t see this coming. Don’t waste your time and listen to advice from websites such as CNNMoney because, as their track record shows, they have no clue.