Seriously, I don’t think America has the ability to rebound. PERIOD.
Things are too expensive, labor is too expensive, people are too damn lazy and unhealthy… it’s a perfect formula for a country’s collapse.
Plus the government doing what they do best (i.e. helping the big money instead of the general public), I really don’t see how Americans can dig themselves out of this hole.
Think Obama or McCain can get something done?
Think again.
Being the government, it runs just the same regardless of who heads it. What can change when big money is what really controls the government?
It’s hopeless.
I ALWAYS LOVE THE ANALYSTS WHO FIRMLY TOUT THE UNDYING RESILENCE OF THE AMERICAN CONSUMER. IT IS A PRETTY SAD FACT WHEN THE BEST THEY CAN COME UP WITH IS THAT TWO THIRDS OF ALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS CONSUMER SPENDING. WELL THAT WOULD APPEAR TO LEAVE JUST ONE THIRD FOR EVERYTHING ELSE, MANUFACTURING ETC. WELL IF WE KEEP GOIN DOWN THE ROAD OF GLOBALIZATION WE WILL BE LIKE CHINA WAS TWENTY YEARS AGO, THEN HEY!! ALL THE MANFACTURING WILL COME BACK HERE AND WE CAN MAKE TEE SHIRTS FOR THEM.
oil! oil! oil! most of wall street is clueless just like they were when they were buying worthless mortgage backed secruties. When the ceiling falls they will say – did’nt see that coming.
Yes it will. Gas prices are going to disrupt our ecomony in ways that have not been seen before. The dow will retreat to under 10,000 before Bush leaves office and the oil companies will break new record profit. Many businesses will fall in lieu of high energy prices.
The second half might be worse than the first half (Dow, S&P down 14% YTD), but it’s not likely. If you filter out autos, financials, and housing (all of which have fallen so much that they are now much smaller portions of the indices), earnings are growing at about 10% per year. This is hardly bad news.
Still, for most stocks, it’s too late to sell and too soon to buy. There will be an event when it’s clear we are past the bottom, and it may be July/August reports of Q2 earnings (ahem…losses). If you must dip your toe into financials, do it the day AFTER the company raises more capital, NOT the day before. Most of the financials will be raising lots more capital, diluting current shareholders.
‘Unless something is done to correct the structural problems in financial sector and in commodities, neither of which is politically attractive or easy, probably yes’
You do understand that your argument negates itself right?
Unless something is done to correct the structural problems in financial sector and in commodities, neither of which is politically attractive or easy, probably yes.
Really what’s the point!!!! Everyone just keep buying! Stocks are great values right now. “Cautious optimism”….good grief… how about overly optimistic? Is there ever a down day that IS NOT a good buying day? Wouldn’t that make up days good selling opportunities? Pretty good idea considering that we’re now 20% off of the peak so this is a GREAT time to be buying! Hold out for capitulation? No way, buy now and get rich with the stock market like real estate. Order now and get a free set of knives…
I am cautiously pessimistic, meaning that I suspect the market will make at least one more (probably more) feeble attempt to rise again before coming to the actual bottom in a few months or longer. I will get cautiously optimistic when bad news is bad news and good news is bad news. This has not happened yet in this 3 quarter downturn, because only 3 quarters is a pretty short time given the tremendous financial problems we have yet to fully uncover and solve. [Don't know if you noticed, but yesterday at MSN Money/Briefing.com reported that GM sales were down 8% not 18%. I wonder if that helped GM stock to decline the 15% before rebounding to down only 2%.]