Earnings deja vu

Very perceptive Sybil,

You took the words right out of my mouth. If I had to add anything, I would say that the second quarter will be much, much worse than expected due to shocking reports of less than expected profits all around the board. The shock waves may bring the DOW lower than 10′000.

They probably will be, but Oil and Gas costs are to blame for the demise of U.S. profits. Frankly I could care less about what a company did last year this time, but Wall Street finds some merit in that. Both of the companies mentioned in the article are making a profit. To me that’s good enough,

It will look sideways. Auto, finance, and housing companies will have decreasing earnings or increasing losses; all other sectors will have increasing earnings.

We are transitioning to a more democratic economy: tax-and-spend, rather than a republican economy of borrow-and-spend.

Yes, they will be worse.

The second Q got hit hard by weather. A lot of shopping didn’t happen and the rebuilding hasn’t started yet.

There was also a large drop in consumer confidence during the 2nd Q, a goodly amount represented by a drop in current financial conditions. I expect this will result in pull backs in consumer staples, telecoms, and health care. People can no longer freely spend what they don’t have.

And utilities probably got a boost in over all income, but the spike in oil/coal/natural gas/ethanol last Q will hurt profits.

All in all, the second Q saw the population, and businesses, coming to grips with the realities of the fact the “world” changed. Money can not be borrowed as easily, energy is more expensive, food is more expensive, the value of stock and real estate is down, the dollar is weaker.

The results of the change in both perception by, and options for, Americans will start be showing in 2nd Q profits.