i do not think the price of oil or gas will ever go back to where it was last year or even earlier. The government, politicians do nothing to help the US citizens, and they see we can pay (as hard as it is) so they will not do anything to lower prices. Oil companies and other companies are also making a fortune off of us so they dont want the price to come down either otherwise, they will not make money.
Anyone who thinks that gas will drop significantly is fooling themselves. Why would the oil companies let that happen when we all know that they can manipulate the industry. This just opens the door for some brave inventor to find an alternate fuel source and turn the Arab sands into worthless oily deserts.
NO..It’s the lull before the storm.
To think they will stay down is believe we do not live in a world motivated by greed.And I just don’t think there is anyone left that hasn’t figured out that greed has taken over.
In reply to Michael Winston:
The financial geniuses who helped the mortgage market to its current height have transferred their immense insight and skillset to the oil futures market. Guess who will get astronomical commissions and who will get stuck with the bill when everything collapses?
Congress – the most expensive clown show in the world. Instead of compromising and getting something done, Reid, Pelosi and the democrats tried to score political gotcha points and ended up doing nothing, as usual.
Slowing demand for oil + New Trade legislation + election + alternative energy + a stronger dollar = Bad news for Oil speculators…..$60 dollars by April
Slowing US economy + falling equity markets in Asia and India => less demand => falling price. The “prices are because of strong demand from Asia and India” won’t hold water 6-9 months. Sell oil futures and get rich!
The price of oil will triple when Israel bombs Iran. The recent decline is based on a false hope that Israel can be restrained.
Posted By John Duluth, MN :”…if it goes back to $100 and less and stays there for many months, then the incentives to work on alternative energy sources will be set back”
This is one of the reasons why oil will fall. The big oil companies (no I am not talking Exxon/Mobil, Conoco/Phillips, etc. as these are al small players when compared to the national oil companies of Saudi, Iran, Venezuela, etc.) fully understand what development of viable alternative energy sources means to them. (why do you think Dubai is so rapidly diversifying into the financial sector?) Therefore, I fully anticipate drastically lower oil prices, but it will not happen too fast, as these major oil companies (read countries) also understand that this is the (right) time to make high profits, similar to the history of the late 70’s early 80’s.
Hmmmm. It seems to me that I remeber the 2006 gas price run-up had a very conveiniant and timely reversal that happened just in time for the mid-term election cylce.
I have a hunch that oil and gas prices will drop significantly before November. Once the elections are over the prices will go back up again.
I am not sure that one ought to focus on the “dollar-value” of oil so much as the comparative worth of it. Dollar devaluation (aka inflation) has been a significant driving in the 2007-2008 run-up in oil price.
When viewed from an American perspective, clarity is greatly disadvantaged and it is difficult to determine whether or not we have reached peak/bottom. Price oil in Euro’s, Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollars, Gold… pretty much anything other than greenbacks and the price of oil is far more stable than we think.
No, I do not believe that the price of oil and gas has peaked. Granted, I will say that it has for the short term, less than one year. Gas will continue to go up, demand is steadily increasing and supply is struggling to maintain the curve. Eventually the world will see the Hubbert Peak, but by then, hopefully there will be several viable alternatives available. Price will most likely continue to rise due to the fact that every year the value of oil is a good hedge against inflation, and more and more investment institutions are using oil instead of stocks and bonds.
I do not believe that we will ever see oil below 80 dollars again for any sustained period of time.
Oil prices will continue to drop because this is an election year. Other reasons include the bankrupcy of SemiGroup and legislation to curb speculation. There has also been some movement on a new Drill Bill by president Bush and although this will not hav any immediate effect it will send a message to OPEC and the world that the US is moving towards a more self sufficient stance in energy management. As a side note, civil charges were laid by CFTC against a Dutch firm for manipulation OIL futures contracts in the commodities market. This will also send a message that the CFTC is serious about cracking down on questionable activities of unscrupulous traders. Oil will drop to about $80 a barrel by December 2008 and will continue to drop until it levels off at about $60 a barrel early next year. G.B.
If you still insist that demand/supply is behind this housing->oil->commodity–>food price surge, you need to pull your head out of your pants. It is the greed + deregulation + government dysfunction + bush that caused all these. The fact is market economy is not perfect, not panacea, so stop using it try to make sense to the nonsense.
Of course they are going down. The calendar shows there are 179 days left. Oil will not even get close to this price for a long, long time after that.
YES I think they are on the way down to around 75.00 a barrel. Thsi whole thing is the best of both worlds. We had a 147.00 per barrel price to scare people into looking for alternatives and really driving those technologies in place since we all know it’s a matter if time. At the same time, the prices will come back down so for the short term the econly can bounce back.
Added to all of this is that the housing market is bottoming out and will begin rebound next year – mid 09. We have some good times right around the corner.
I do believe Oil will be 3 steps and 1 little step up as it drops rather quickly.
I am a staunch republican and conservative and I pray every day that Obama does not get inot the White House. With that said, I’ll admit I knew months ago that this would happen. Why? Because the election is coming. Good news from Iraq will continue and relations with Iran will improve, as well. Tensions in Afghanistan will cool by late August. Oil will be at $90 by the election and gas at $3.50 per gallon. This will all lead to a victory for McCain. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something nig on the OBL front as well. Mark my words, these things will occur. You heard it here. Remember!
Oil is going down in price for only one reason and that is the speculators are scared at the thought of being identified as causing these prices to spike out of control.
The companies and their employees that are identified causing the sudden rise in oil through speculation should be treated as “Terrorist” for the damages they have enflicted on America.
Just as everyone blamed speculators for the rise in oil prices, I blame them for the drop in oil prices. I bet the barrel price will be going back up as the supply/demand situation hasn’t changed much. At least China has reported continued and increasing demand growth.
Even if oil goes to 100 a barrle, the gas companies will keep prices high. They get us used to paying higher prices and try to keep them there as long as they can.
I read that when oil was going up in price, you could plan on a 5 cent increase per gallon of gasoline for every one dollar jump in the price per barrel of oil. That was fairly accurate. Well, oil has gone down around $15 per barrel which should translate to around a 75 cent per gallon decrease in gasoline. Gas is down about 4 cents per gallon here in Colorado. Interesting, huh???
I certainly hope we have not seen the peak in oil/gas prices!
If we want to find the solutions to our finite supply of fossil fuels, then we should hope we have NOT seen the peak in oil/gas prices. I’m not saying the peak has to be $200+ but if it goes back to $100 and less and stays there for many months, then the incentives to work on alternative energy sources will be set back and that will mean even more pain in the future.
The current stock market rally (which may be ending today) is not a function of falling oil prices as much as it is a function of bear market “short term hopeful stupidity.” I hope those who needed to lighten up on some of their stock holdings took advantage of this rather brief rally. This will not, however likely be the last rally before we reach a realistic bottom where stock prices reflect HONEST earnings (earnings that include ALL costs of doing business- what a novel idea!) and P/E ratios are at very low values (probably 10 or less) consistent with a U.S. and global financial/housing/energy/food/gov’t deficit crisis that begs for a “house cleaning to end all house cleanings.”
I dont think the rich care that they have starving people out there now. They have sent the US into a tale spin. Airlines,business etc. They hurt the every day normal person in the US and that is the hub of the US
$100+ per bbl is overpriced for the true supply & demand of crude. However, we have reached ‘peak oil’. That is the rate of increase in demand far exceeds the world’s ability to increase the rate of new oil reserve discoveries.
So, for stable oil prices the worldwide rate of increase in demand for crude oil must be less than or equal to rate of new reserve discovery.
The only way this will happen is if stop using fossil fuels as a source personal transportation energy.
The oil price rise was not really caused by a tactical shortage, because oil was always available. Instead, supply was coming under increased pressure, real or implied, from demand driven by economic growth. So, what is the real price? The cost of the marginal barrel that satisfies the last real customer…. and that is closer to $70 than where we are now. Everything above that is human over-reaction. I hesitate to call it speculation, because for every ‘evil speculator’ that has made money recently and has been demonized by the press, there is now a hapless hedgefund manager that followed the herd and will now dump his long contract to avoid having 60,000 barrels of crude oil dumped on his lawn.
If oil is going down because demand has
dropped by only 2 or 3 percent can you
imagine what would happen to the price
of oil if we would cut demand by 20 or
30 percent. Dont drive unless you have
to that will take care of it.
As the USA is the largest consumer market in the world, any slowdown in that economy will inevitably affect the oil demands of China, Idia et al. As production drops, so does the demand and, hence, the price of a barrel. What baffles me is why so many speculators felt that this was sustainable and that they could get rich on it – did they work in the sub-prime market by any chance?
Yes, definately. I think under $100 is too pessimistic. Probably under $50 by end of year. And it doesn’t seem at least in the NYC area that people have been cutting back even with gas prices at $4.35 for regular.
So the fed will need to raise rates later in the year to bring about a soft landing similar to 2000. Remove high gas prices and the economy is booming.
Giving public assets as blackmail to big oil companies to get lower gas prices has never worked. Yet, republicans continue to insist that we should contine to give more public assets to big oil companies and wait for them to lower gas prices…eventually. How long do republicans want voters to continue playing “blackmail fool and high gas price victim” to big oil companies?