No doubt it will hit 10,500 at least and then after some time after trend upwards. As long as we send jobs away, problems will persist. Bernanke’s job is not going to be outsourced is it, should it be? People in other parts of the world can do better and charge far less!
Who cares? The Dow will hit 18,000 by Q3 of 2011. Anyone who plays this volatile market for the short term deserves to take a financial (and physical) beating.
Nuclear Power in 2 years!!!! Sure! Well then wait a minute?!?!?!?
If we use the contractors building the new Texas Stadium instead of the ones building our Texas/Mex security border then Maybe!!!!
We’re in the roughest time of the year for equity markets: September and October. Dow 10500 is a possibility, especially with the way that the financials have been keeling over one or two at a time. Dow 13000 is also a possibility, but I think it will happen after November through January, where we’ll maybe get a bounce this year.
It would be helpful if the Fed, FDIC, and Treasury would coordinate to close exactly one failing bank each week after the close on Friday, reopening it under receivership or a new owner on the following Monday. This would become the new normal, and people would stop being surprised when it happens. We can certainly handle 52 bank closures per year out of 8000 as we clean house. It would also send a powerful message to the surviving financials to get their acts together quickly.
China and even Russia own a significant portion of our debt (Japan is first). We keep adding to this. Russia and China own (and are now beginning to get rid of) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds. Russia has decreased its $s from 60% to 40% (changing to Swiss Francs and yen). These two countries control too much of our economy and this is not advertised. When no one buys our debt (the Saudis have cut way back on theirs and China has said it will cut back), how can our stock market keep going up.
The reality has not hit home yet to all the sheep out there..meaning those who are like the nitwit’s Kudlow and Kramer…goldy and I will find you a bull market some where…ya right in you dreams you pompus two…Realty !! the market is going under 10,000 after the election no matter who wins the presidential election…gold this time nest year $1,200.00 and up…the dollar moving up at this time is artificial and all pre election bulls..t..The government keeps the printing presses on overtime..more dollars printed more inflation !! for all of you out there who forgot that..why is the Fed the savior of the big private industry guys who caused all theses problems,the greedy and evil ones, and not helping the back bone of America…the small business people ??? Americans wake up…NOW…
Doom and Gloom sells! That’s what the news and talking heads believe and is sold to the public on too many for- profit mediums. No seriously, Dow 9250 by Christmas 2009. Too much individual and government debt for money to be abundant(worthless) in tomorrows market. Sooner or later the Piper must be paid!
We might dip below 13000 for a bit, but I don’t see it going much lower. Why, because there are billions being invested by a group of thugs using everyones 401k money. They get paid to buy buy buy. They pay any price, and this as much as morons borrowing more they can pay back for houses that typically cost less than 40% the purchase price to build. And, if you think either is wrong, go read your 401k agreement where is says your fund manager is not responsible for your investments, then go down to the home center and find your ‘custom’ home package price and add $50k for the labor and $25k for the lot. If you paid more than these figures you fit into the moron category…
Face it, suckers pay for the rest of us to make the returns we make. Do you really think the government or the fed really cares if suckers lose out?
Keep thinking long suckers, and don’t forget to up your 401k contributions for us……
The only real answer to the question is that the market is more likely to be right where it is. The market has already factored any likely ups or downs into its current price.
Of course, the market is always being manipulated. There are very few people with any financial resources who don’t also have a financial interest in encouraging people to be optimistic. Even more optimistic than warranted. That’s why even as the speculated about a housing “bubble”, the media financial pages all recommended buying as big a house as you could afford.
That said, it really doesn’t matter what the stock market does until you sell. For most of us who are saving for retirement, we just keep on buying at whatever the price is. Lower prices now may just mean higher returns later. Of course, if the market remains permanently low that would be a problem.
That isn’t all that likely unless the government continues to intervene to prevent inflation. Because at this point, inflation is the friend of anyone in debt. The most likely way housing prices will recover, is inflation. We will never see real prices as high as they are now. But inflation could easily make those inflated mortgages people have bargains in the long run. Likewise inflation will make that credit card debt seem a lot lower.
But none of that has much to do with the immediate future. Heating costs are going to kill people this fall and unlike gasoline there may not be major lifestyle changes that can significantly impact that. That is going to mean a lot less money to spen on other things which means a slow Christmas season and a further slowdown in the economy. But I would bet most of that is already reflected in the current stock price. If you have still have extra money available to invest, now, as always, is a good time to buy.
Oh yeah, you’ll see a 4-digit Dow before this is over hell I’ll bet you’ll see a 3-digit S&P before this is over too. Since last summer I’ve taken every opportunity that I can to take advantage of the upswings through ProShares short funds. Needless to say I’m beating the current market return handsomely.
Fundamentally our situation has not changed whatsoever and CANNOT change until we bleed out all of our excesses. You can imagine it this way. When you go skydiving you get an initial freefall sensation upon exiting the plane, this was subprime. After that initial exit it usually takes a novice skydiver some times to stabilize into freefall, this is the market turmoil – oil prices, bear stearns, feddie mac fannie mae,etc. But then there’s a point where you’re in stable freefall and the sensation of falling kinda goes away (drag force = weight force = no acceleration) and this is the point that it’s easy to forget that you’re actually plummeting towards the ground. This is the period in the skydive that we’re approaching and many will be lulled into a false sense of hope. But the last phase of any skydive is the ground approach and any skydiver can tell you when you get close enough that sense of freefall comes back real quick. Now here’s the question: when we get to the point where the ground is rushing at us at breakneck velocity will our parachute deploy? Or perhaps a more appropriate question for our financial situation is, what is our parachute? The fed? The treasury? Our human inclination to not panic?
Time to face the facts people. We’re skydiving without a chute and there will come a point where everyone realizes this. In the 30’s and 40’s FDR was there to respond to the ensuing panic and still it took well over a decade to recover. Who do we have to talk us down? George Bush, who’s best explanation for the financial crisis is that “Wall Street got drunk”. Oh and his likely successors don’t inspire FDR-like confidence either. I don’t think you’re gunna get a fireside chat from McCain or Obama though at this point if I had a choice I think I’d rather have Obama addressing a nation in meltdown rather than McCain since at that point people will need inspiration more than leadership. Oh and I’m not going to end this post by saying “maybe I’m wrong and everything will be alright” like some other posters. This is history before it happens for anyone who’s paying attention to the fundamentals. I’m not Chicken Little and I’m not a pessimist. The dismal state of our financial world is an inescapable reality and will remain so regardless of what you believe. Hoping things are not so will not alter the situation but it will probably lower your stress. Just remember that old saying, “hope for the best, prepare for the worst”.
Stop adding comments that don’t address the question. It’s simple will the Dow continue to fall or rise over the next two months.
Credit Crunch- Three things:
a.) we sold houses to those who ordinarily could not qualify.
b.) We sold more house than most could afford and sold equity that truly did not exist in value.
c.) We overspent on credit because of our stupidity thinking the good times can go on forever.
While many took hits during the dotcom bubble it was nothing compared to the housing market bubble. Once stocks lose value they are gone and already paid for but the obligations exposed with the housing bubble do not go away once the owner can not afford to pay.
The pain from this recession will be greater than 2000-2002 because the stakes are higher. Throw in the price of oil and the IRAQ war and it will take much more than a couple of bailouts to right the ship. It takes several years of less spending and belt tightening which is inevitable. You don’t have a choice when it gets this bad and that’s how the pendulum swings the other way. We will be having the same conversations in another 12-15 years. Those of us who know probably won’t make the same mistakes but there are plenty of folks out there who will still think they know everything.
The Dow is not going to 13,000, for sure. Negative talk is often self-fulfilling and incites fear. The Dow can climb a wall of worry but not one of fear.
The S&P 500 is a far better index to be discussing as it represents a much wider range of economic disciplines.
I just hope we can hold the lows and not make new ones that will have to be tested. This could drag out for a long time.
10,000 is easily more attainable. Look if the Fed had to bail out Fannie and Freddie do you think everything is just “hunky dory” right now? Calling for a bottom now is totally unrealistic and opportunistic I might add but you are wrong. The next leg down will probably mark the turnaround. 6-9 more months at least before we start back to bull.
Lawrence is right! America’s only hope is to print money like it’s going out of style. Cut the dollars value 1/100th of it’s current value. That will suck all the wealth from the top and wipe out the debt on the bottom. As well as wipe out the Gov’s 53 Trillion in debt by simpling erasing its value. This will send us head strong into a 2 decade depression. A depression is the only out-come. Any other option will only make things worse. If the Gov and Fed allowed the economy to slide into depression we will correct our misgivings and eventually crawl out of the hole. Unfortunately that’s not what will happen. Gov will keep blowing smoke until it’s much too late and the entire economy will vanquish in front of our eyes. Possibly this is the out-come they truly desire.
On the other hand, what do I truly know. I only do financial plans for 100’s of families a year and every last one of them is BROKE!! An entire generation struggling to spend every last penny. Far as I can tell these politicians and ceo’s must have a better view from a top the mountain. I mean they must really be in touch with reality to create this kind of monetary policy.
Dow is now at 11200 and its maximum used to be at 13900, so it dropped only 20%. Almost all commentarys say it’s the worst reccesion since 70ties. If I remember well, during previous reccesions of 1994 and 2001, the Dow dropped much lower than 20%. Therefore if this reccesion is even worse than these of 1994 and 2001, I guess the Dow should go much lower than 10500.
Oh no. This is just the gentle slope before the edge.
It is what you deserve and that’s all she wrote.
John, Phila. PA – good point. However, that’s when the media is mainly filled with pessimistic views. Ordinary people – people posting comments here – tend to have a much better feeling of what’s going on in the economy that a journalist sitting in an office, drinking pollyana-cool aid and reviewing biased gvmt statistics. The media is still very much out of touch with reality. Look at CNN or CNBC. In that sense I believe the bottom may be far off. When our dear friend Paul La Monica becomes a pessimist, that’ll be a more reliable sign of a bottom.
R Gray,
Yes, the market is being manipulated – see “plunge protection team.” The S&P breached critical support at 1220 on Friday, so the feds got the team buying and kept the markets stable. Knowing they couldn’t force PPT equity purchases indefinitely, the next step was to try to reassure the markets by backing up FRE/FRM.
But as you see, even that wasn’t enough to prevent stocks from almost fully reversing yesterday’s gains.
Our best hope is a hyperinflationary recession which devalues gov’t and personal debt. Otherwise it’s a deflationary depression and much of the life we’ve come to know will be changed radically. It’s not the end of the world, or of world financial markets, but it will be much more difficult than anything we’ve experienced since the depression.
Aw, don’t listen to me, I’m just a contrary market sentiment indicator – go long, go strong, go XLF!!!
No, seriously, go cash and wait for 6 months. Then decide what you want to do.
The Dow will stay in the 10,000 to 13000 range for the next five to ten years. It just seems that no matter how bad the news it is no longer reflected in the Dow. Does this mean it is being artificially stabilised??
This country is finished. America does not produce any major export to the world except the armaments and inflation. By trying to delay a recession for the past decade we have just made the necessary correction that much more severe. We should have had a severe recession after the bursting of the .COM tech bubble in 2000 and again in the wake of the effects caused by Sept 11th. What we got instead was the most irresponsible monetary policy in the history of the world in the form of the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003. Additionally, the federal reserve artificially lowered interest rates to 1% and flooded the economy with debt to provide the illusion of growing wealth and prosperity which manifested itself in the housing market. We a recession to eliminate and reduce debt in order to cure all the mal-investment. With America’s negative savings rate and terribly flawed currency which the FED and Treasury excessively print as they hopelessly try to liquidate the system , I can see no other way out of this mess other than a severe depression, and possible collapse of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Dow below 10,000 is guaran-da*n-teed. In the wake of the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, and Indymac bailouts, the bigger question, in regard to the direction of the economy that the fools at CNN should be asking is, “Will the Federal Reserve and Treasury continue to try and underwrite the entire financial industry on the behalf of the American Taxpayer?” For that is the direction the Titanic is now listing as it continues its glacial paced move downward. The problem is, there are far too many people who still think the ship is un-sinkable.
So the front page of CNN Money has the head line of 407 billion dollar deficit.
This is not a 407 billion debt. This is just the amount we are spending THIS YEAR over what we will make THIS YEAR.
But wait, that’s not all. Since every time congress raises the debt limit it goes up by more then the stated deficit, and since this is projected, and the real is always bigger, and since this doesn’t include the general fund borrowing from SSI, and since it is not taking into account the losses from the take over of fred and fanny,
well, the bottom line is 407 billion is a staggering number and it grossly understates reality.
And people think it will get better with a new president. As if congress isn’t the one who spends all the money or as if either one of the presidential candidates is talking like he is going to reduce spending. No, they are both promising the moon. (as usual)
The only way the stock market is going to hit 13000 any time soon is if inflation makes today’s 8000 = tomorrow’s 13000.
Oh yeah, that’s probably on the way.
So I guess the answer to your question Paul is that it will go DOWN to 13000.
in response to the individual who thought that nuclear power could become viable in 2 years, forget it, as having been in the business for 20+ yrs i know it takes about 10 years to get that kind of beast running. Even with standardized engineering and slimmer lincesing process. I do think it should be donw and now!
Posted By jsg, Ft.Worth,Tx: September 9, 2008 3:33 pm
Give me a break if we really wanted to build nuclear reactors it could probably be done in 6 months tops. How long does it take to pour the foundation? A continuous pour job would be over in about 2 days with a month led time to form it up. Getting a plant up and running to produce the metal container for the reactor maybe two months if you have people who have never done it before. Manufacturing the fuel is done by USU already. It should only take 6 months top but I am allowing two years.
If people took as long as you say you need WWII would have been fought with bows and arrows. If they could produce nuclear weapons in two years and all the support for them we should be able to build reactors in 6 months tops 2 years.
just 10000? lower than 10000 is possible. nobody can predict the market. just keep on invest and look for long term……………
in response to the individual who thought that nuclear power could become viable in 2 years, forget it, as having been in the business for 20+ yrs i know it takes about 10 years to get that kind of beast running. Even with standardized engineering and slimmer lincesing process. I do think it should be donw and now! also we will need Nuclear desalinization plants along all coasts for water in addition to electric generation.
As for the econonmy,,,,one only has to look at goverment fiscal policy. Folks the United States is BROKE! There is no other way to spell it!!!!!! Although we will not see a Great Depression you can bet on continued failings of key industries followed and sponsored by Gov’t low interest loans and takeovers. Once the backbone of industry is either obsolete or broke, in addition to a big chunk of foreign ownership in our real estate whats left. The answer could be the value of our money, or our moral vales to work and saving!!!!!! Think about it and answers to what is wrong with America are obvious and where we are going is also. Can it be fixed? You betcha!!!!, we need to work together both Democrats and Republicans to fix it! Bearish or Bullish i don’t know, but if we continue to remain divided then Asta La Vista Baby!!!!
Partner, I would much rather have the Dow at 11K, measured in the year 2000 dollar$ rather than 2008 dollar$! In 2000 gold was $225/oz, oil was around $11/brl, so the question is almost nonsensical. Can the Dow go to 13K? Sure, but will oil be at $200 or $300/brl? What does $13K mean? Or will the dollar appreciate, oil fall, gold fall, and the Dow goes to 10K?
Paul, just WHAT are you asking??
Are you really asking, do you think our money problems will improve or get worse? I think most people think it will get worse before the next guys occupy the Govt. Remember the leadership deficit from “IOUSA”?
At the same time, Hank Paulson is running our money, and he did a fine job running Goldman Sachs, so maybe we’ll tread water until January 29th?
My advice, Hold on to your hat cowboy!
An old investor once told me that a bear market doesn’t really end until the S&P 500 P/E is in single digits.
Not only have we not got there, but the P/E hasn’t even dipped below it’s long-term average of 15.
It’s quite possible the DOW can get back to 13,000 in a matter of months. The more important question is what will the nominal value of that 13,000 be?
This market will trend lower for the next few quarters. Fortunately, we are a fairly diversified and open market which allows us to enjoy beneifits along with our exposure to risks. The strenthening dollar will lower import costs which should bring cash flow back to those consumers that are working. Time will heal the loss of equity for many homeowners and real estate can start to turn over again (granted that is years away). The squeeze on our businesses will push productivity higher and create further cost saving to the consumers and enhance our long term competitiveness. Raw materials usage will subside and lower material costs. Hopefully, in the interim, congress will actually develop policies that will move the economy in a meaningful way (Don’t laugh; it could happen.. Okay, laugh).
The Dow is going sideways until the Uptick Rule gets changed back to how it had been for the last 70+ years. Institutional investors (which drive the market), particularly hedge funds, profit way too much on volatility to allow for a long term upward trend in the market (that outpaces inflation). They also will be sure to spend whatever money it takes (lobbyists) to ensure the Uptick Rule is kept in place.
All this negativity is nonsense. Once the election is over and new blood is in play in Washington there will be a huge stock rebound. Bank stocks are unbelievable bargains right now, but most folks are too scared to buy. They’ll be sorry next year when it’s too late to get in low.
I tend to think lower. Just like the US consumuer is basically spent, the national economy probably is getting close. About 2.5 months from now will be quite telling. I do wonder how much is being held together by both parties just to get thru the election and after that I wonder if it can be held together anymore.
I was lucky or just didn’t listen to Cramer/Kudlow, but Oct/Nov 2007, I moved about 70% of my 401K/IRA stuff to money markets. In fact, I moved one old 401K to an IRA on THE day of the highest DOW/S&P. I got an extra $300 from the time I clicked accept change to the end of the day. I figure at the lows, I’d “saved” at least $20,000.
My wife and I live very frugally. We’ve been going to Goodwill/Salvation Army for years and love it. We don’t go to malls. I have noticed in the last few months more people at Goodwill and some seem to be a bit self conscious and kind of look down. You can tell the newbies.
My wife and I know how to live at a minimum (no cable, read books, 1 TV in the house). I’m no socialist, but I do look forward to see other folks taken down a peg from silly stuff they don’t need.
The only thing that will get us out of this mess we are in is for the government to admit all it’s fiscal policies were wrong and go back to a manufacturing economy and forget about a consumer led economy.
If the government announced it would allow Beoing to build the new refueling tanker only if they used 100 percent owned and operated American machine shops and raw material suppliers that alone would probably add 500 points to the S&P as it would force a lot of jobs to be created here in America.
If government would announce that they would be building twice as many nuclear plants as exist today using a proven GE design in the next two years that would probably add 1000 points to the S&P. Think about it in 2 years 40 percent of American electrical power would be nuclear. We have 100 years of uraninum power and 10,000 years of uraninum converted to plutonium power.
It would add tens of thousands of jobs and create a market overseas for our nuclear plants if we pull it off.
Gee just reduce the manufacturing industries taxes to 2 percent a year and increase the telecomms and financial industries tax rate to 50 percent and you will see millions of jobs created over night for Americans.
We just have the bad luck of having either idiots directing economic growth in this country or they all work for the old Soviet Union’s KGB and are out to destory this country.
It’s simple put people back to work making things.
Yesterday’s rally means nothing. Floor traders and day traders respond to news like the take over of Freddie and Fannie either emotionally or by anticipating the emotional responses of others.
Markets may be effcient in the long term, with stock prices reflecting the true value of the comapnies, but in the short and mid term (say anything less than four years) they are inefficient to the point of bordering on stupidity. How else could we have things like the dot com bubble and the housing bubble.
An efficient market would not over react to a temporary economic set backs like our current recession. However, when we see a risk premium at historical lows it seems that the market is still over valued despite the recent declines.
I don’t expect the present bear market to continue until the risk premium comes into line with historical averages, but I do expect it to continue until the end of the year.
When all your trading partners are fired (UBS) and your dealers are sitting on an overwhelming stock of unsold cars, when consumers ache wherever you go and the US Fed is in a $400 billion hole – the DOW will go South…and must, bustantially.
Both figures are optimistic. A typical bear, given the seriousness of our problems, would chomp at least 40%. Expect 7500-8500 and a protracted recession.
The markets will stay in this volatile range for at least another year. Dow down to 10,000 and up to 13,000. It isn’t going to break out of this range until all the broken glass is cleaned up on the highway
I’m getting worried Paul. It’s getting tough out there, and all the recent economic data points to something big on the horizon.
What do I mean by big? Well, lets say a Twinkie reprsents the normal amount of potential negative fallout from deficit spending and economic mismanagement. According to recent samples, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long weighing approximately 600 pounds.
Yes Paul, that’s a big Twinkie.
The Dow will definitely hit 10500 before it sees 13000 again. I believe that over the next 1-2 years the Dow will actually test the 2002 lows (~7200) – with a reasonable chance that it will break through that support level. The PE ratios today well above the historic range 9-20 (aside from the absurd bubble levels reached in the late 1990’s/2000)- and earning are still headed down. It amazes me to hear analyst use the 2000 PE as a reference point to imply that stock valuations are so great right now. We have used asset appreciation in stock in housing (“bubbles”) to supplement our income and live beyond our means for years. We have run out of bubbles to blow and it is time to pay the piper. Housing prices will continue to decline until they reach levels that are affordable under reasonable lending standards and true market interest rates. Based an analysis I done – this means we still have another 20-35% more to go on the downside. When this is finished working it’s way through the balance sheets, the writedowns for residential real estate alone will be in the 2-3 trillion dollar range.
Why would the market go up? The 10 year bond can’t hold 4%. Hell, the 30 year bond is barely clinging to 4%. That reflects very low confidence in our economic future. The only thing that will push this market up is if our politicians address our long term financial problems, Social Security and Medicare. Guess what? It ain’t gonna happen. I wish I was wrong.
I think that Dow 10,000 is more likely! When Honda cars sit on the lot, I can walk right up to the Starbucks counter, and all my doc friends and I are eating pizza at home on Friday night….there’s still significant pain out there. I’m cutting consumer spending to the bone.
Hey Paul,
I’m very sure DOW will go down below 10,000 when these big financial companies (like citibank, bank of America, Meryll lynch…) would reveal their 3rd quarter earnings. Compounded to slowing down in Technology spending; consumers will have to cut back in shopping except foods and basic goods and they are choking in debts. I would bet you before November 2008 DOW Jones will be hovering below 10,000. I would say without fear of being contradicted DEPPRESSION is in sight and is coming not only for the U.S. but for the entire universe.
We’ve built a flawed economic model. I really don’t understand why it is so hard to see even for people without background in economics.
Driving the consumption/development up by using inflation/printing money works as long as you can forever grow and consume more.
As soon as we hit the slightest obstacle in consumption growth (oil) everything went berserk. Every single resource that we use is limited. You can’t continue to grow consumption indefinitely. Eventually you will hit the ceiling.
At that moment the ability of the companies to bring more profit will cease to exist.
Production to ensure survival will take its place. How exactly this will work I have no idea. But it’s driven by the inevitable laws of physics.
There are only so many molecules of ….. (insert here your preferred resource).
Most of the pundits commenting here are untethered to the reality that most people in this country live in. Holiday sales will be bleak due to the drying of the HELOC well. If you live in the Hamptons this means one less 50″ plasma screen for the family room. If you live in rural America, it means no Christmas at all. Of course, that assumes you haven’t frozen to death in the home you can’t afford to heat this winter.
I think neither, either well below 10K or around 12K.
Chances of going down deep are much greater than boosting to 13K…With people still not regaining confidence that’s the case. I have confidence in things looking up by the end of the year…I haven’t sold a thing and keep buying on the way down.
When you cannot take the risk of having to wait a long time for a good return: Don’t get into this business!
LOL — Let’s do the math – US is bankrupt, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac , Bear Sterns are bankrupt. Houses cost $400,000 while people only make $50,000 a year and the Sec. of Treasury says bailing out Fannie and Freddie will stablize house prices.
In what alternate universe are policy makers living in? Either wages will have to raise to $200,000 a year or house prices fall to $100,000 to stablize the housing market.
If policy makers are this confused over something simple like 1 out of ten home owners are in foreclosure because they do not make enough money to afford the house, what other obvious policy mistakes are they making.
Sometimes I wonder if they aren’t really working for the old Soviet KGB and are out to destroy this country.
The economy is headed down because as more people get laid off they cause even more to get laid off as they are not buying anything. This means corporate profits are headed down. Europe and Asia are already in a recession. Our leaders are lying to us about us being in a recession.
The stock market is going to blow right through 10,000 and land at 2,000 in about 3 years.
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The underlying economic fundmentals are pointing South. EC is not able to help out the Empire. Oil prices about $100 are confirming indicators of under-performing economy. Sub-prime debt crisis spawns related debt calls on unfortunate folks who lost their jobs and homes. The Debt Bubble is defalting slowly. All these factors do not bode well for stocks. It is a matter of 1-2 quarters before dividend yields reflect the recession now underway. Continued export of blue collar jobs and a growing Part-Time and under-paid and under-employed workforce will result in further decline of the Empire’s treasury. The only thing that kept the Empire afloat in past is that investment dollars from abroad continue to inflate the U$. The significant cost of Foreign Wars and the War on Terrorism all add-up to a Great Bear Run down to 9,000 level – a 30% pull-back from the top – or back to April 2003. The recovery depends on how fast the US economy can restructure and re-employ its most vulnerable residents – blue collar community sustainers. The US Armed Forces cannot mop-up all uner-employed or unemployed teens and 20-somethings. The economy needs to restructure and focus on sustainable long-term investment in the ‘real’ economy.