Do you have any insight on how Obama plans to measure the number of jobs “saved” by his stimulus plan? I think his combining of “created and saved” jobs is just a cop-out so that he can claim he met his goals even if we actually lose millions of more jobs
What’s funny to me is the “smart guys running things aren’t as smart as they claim to be. Most people believed that this country was in a recession well before these “financial experts” finally admitted to it. Facts are now with the unemployment which is really 17 percent, deflation, and a negetive GDP we are at depression numbers now. Things are still going to fall a lot more. We will shed 500k to 600k jobs in 2009 4 or 5 months. The debt those families carrry will go delequent(including mortgages so a rate of 3.5 will not matter when the capacity to pay even a 0 rate is gone). It is really all avoidable but the greed of wall street still exsist and it’s amazing to me. Low rates don’t mean that much becasue the banks are holding on the the permiums. They took our tax money and are not lending it back at the best deal, and no one is forcing them to do it. If a person who has a 620 fico score has never missed a payment and can prove income or capacity to pay back the loan give that individual the best rate and free up an extra 500 to 1200 dollars a month. If that person has demonstrated the ability to pay at the higher payment it’s a pretty safe bet a lower rate and lower payment will be paid also and gladly. The saving will go back into the economey or allow that person to payoff debt. That should stabilize the sheding of jobs As it sits right now a person with a 680 credit score can’t even get out of a 7 percent rate becasue of the pricing which is as absurd as the 580 100 percent stated/stated.
All that off-shoring of IT, engineering, customer service and manufacturing jobs is coming back to byte us in the ass. And folks like bill gates still want more H1-b visa’s or they threaten to just move the company. Until that problem is fixed and folks can feel some security in their jobs, we will not get out of this problem. Of course business owners and wall street dont see the problem.
why can’t we bring all the jobs back from china? Why can’t we devalue US dollar against yuan to make Chinese made wares so expensive ? This will repatriate back the US factories back to US shores
My cash is NOT in the market at this time. It is in Treasuries except for my choice of two or three “situational”
short term investments which I will dump
when there is a good enough advance. I do have a few utilities and natural
resource stocks that I picked up at their 3-5 years lows weeks ago. I play
WTU and others as they ride the pony.
Unemployment numbers will continue to
climb…and I frankly don’t know how
high they will go. NO ONE will keep
people on the payroll if they are not
making money or goods for delivery.
The big problem is the increasing rate
at which employees are being shed by
the truly depressed consumer market.
Market Valuations: The MARKET is still
very over bought considering forward
looking earnings from EVERY sector of
the DOW.
When reality catches up to this market
look out below.
I feel sorry for this beautiful country that somehow let morons like you post as journalists, frauds in wall street steal the wealth of its people and self-righteous clowns in congress drive what remains to the ground.
As long as the people above remain in their positions there is no hope for improvement.
Jim from Portland has it right I believe – unemplyment at the 20% level. Unheard of right? Sure – we have eliminated most good jobs and what would lead to a return? We did it to ourselves and we are now reaping the harvest of the bad seeds we planted as a society.
Fasten your seat belts.
If someone tells you that he/she is not worried about losing his/her job, they are simply lying… I think unemployment rate will be as high as the billionaire suicide rate. We just had another rich dude killed himself today. At this rate, we will be out of billionaires by May… not even mention maybe some disgruntled, laid off people will come out of the woodwork to help the process along… Just a thought.
Everyone’s cutting back on spending, so more businesses are shutting down. Obviously, unemployment rate will go up to 15%.
I’ll echo what others have said: >20%. Of course, the reported number will be whatever is needed to support the official fantasy.
Seasonal adjustment, discouraged workers, underemployment… The real number is a fiction.
A functional economy is built on confidence and trust. And the problem is not lack of liquity or hope — it is a dysfunctional government. The masses are a couple paychecks from an awakening.
Make friends with the military — lots of fearful 18 year olds. Disconnected and missing home and being dumped by their girl/boyfriends. I predict they wake up too. Its just a job.
Double digit unemployment? I thought we just spent over 700 billion dollars to prevent that. For that matter I thought all of the inheritance and capital gains tax reductions were going to eliminate that because investors always invest to create jobs. What happened? We haven’t been taken for a ride have we? Now the latest scam I hear from these types is the so called Fair Tax movement for a VAT or flat tax. What might be a fair tax is to eleiminate tax on earned income because we want people to work and produce. Tax whatever is needed out of unearned income like inheritance and capital gains because these people have obviously not been investing in productive activities which help the country or create jobs anyway.
Job losses will continue to accelerate. The government’s reported number will be low balled and will peak @ 12-15% by the end of 2009, although actual unemployment will reach 20-25%. NO the market has not yet priced this in, although the article’s cheerleading comments would have you believe otherwise 
. Maybe you recall how we were told that the bad news was priced in shortly after Bear Stearns failed in March of last year The only way to prevent a meltdown is to reduce government spending and reduce taxes by the same degree. We could start by reducing the number of military bases we have scattered across the globe. These stimulus packages that devalue the dollar are only going to ensure that inflation puts us all into poverty in the coming years!
So tell mem what would happen if a real unemployment number came out of a Government report, along with a report that hiring ceased consumers ONLY buy necessities? No fluff, just real numbers?
I have no doubt that the “reported” unemployment rate will be well under 10% by November of 2010. If the Dems can’t get the employment numbers skewed the way they want them, there’ll be a ton of House Democrats looking for work.
In our area of the country unemployment is already around 10% in many places. I see nationally that number as well by mid-2009. Locally our number will hit 15% and nationally around 11 to 12% by fall of 2009. Global pressure will hit us and the reverberations will be what keeps us in recession for far longer than in the past. Globally recession may turn mostly depression-like in many economies. We need to think about serious consequences and be prepared. The good news is that even with a 12% unemplyment we will have 88% employed and we need to figure out how we all help each other through this.
I know this isn’t the question posed, but what <> think the government should do to help create employment is this:
Remove all taxes, fees, applications, restrictions, licenses and other interferences (other then safety related requirements such as health inspections for food production) from a person who is self employed, hiring no people and earning under the poverty line. Including the requirement to even file income taxes, much less pay tax on their meager incomes.
It should be easy, so easy, absolutely easy, for an unemployed person trying to feed his/her family to get a mower and a broom and go make a little money.
I know that this will not help the numbers (which as we all know is what the government cares about). But we do not need good numbers. We need real activity and real production.
And individuals need real income.
I predict the unemployment rate will be 3% by year’s end, the indentured servant rate will be roughly higher at 6%, the outright-slavery rate will increase to 8%, and the my-God-why-did-I-buy-this-much-house rate will be up to 79%.
The Governmnet, Conress and the President run great Ponzi Scheams don’t they.
Unemployemnt numbers are grossly under inflated.
Federal Defict numbers are grossly under inflated.
The Bail out numbers are grossly under inflated.
What do you expect? The Truth?
To Ben F Ranklin, Worcester, MA.
You are right on the money about allowing to withdraw from 401K, etc.
Do you know why it’s not done ? Because even though it may save millions of people and help the economy, the same time it will crash Ponzi scheme called Wall-Street.
And, that’s ALL they really care about !
For the record folks, the “number applying for Unemployment” and the “number continuing on the unemployment roles” are reflecting those on unemployment. The unemployment rate is calculated separately and is an estimate made from a variety of sources.
However, this does not mean it is not garbage. I read that a person is considered employed if they are working 10 hours a week. I don’t know about most folks, but that doesn’t keep me afloat.
The rate in general does not reflect the fact that most people are working less hours, and a lot of them are making less money. Both of these factors are going to increase as well as the unemployment rate.
What was the height of the depression? 25%?
I say look for that before this is over.
Are you asking about Reported Unemployment numbers that we know about, or unreported unemployment numbers that you don’t hear about?
The weekly reported unemployment numbers are those that claim unemployment insurance every week until that insurance runs out for them.
Then “Poof” that unemployed person is no longer counted as an unemployed person and has fallen off the radar because they are now either collecting an early Social Security check or disability check instead.
That said, and at this point, you will have to add the % of those that fell of the unemployment radar exponentailty every week to the current number because you know they are no finding work at this point in the recession.
And by the way, who really knows how many fell off the unemployment radar after they stopped collecting that Special Government Check? Why only the Government of course.
9-10%
Doomsdayers are just as bad as the eternal optimists of the past 5 years. Americans are either ‘on’ or ‘off’… what’s the deal? Does anyone think rationally anymore?
My business bucked the trend last year and looks to have a great year because of our conservative business model. Our competitors that boomed in the last few years are now laying off and going out of business. Guess where job inquiries are coming from for us?
Find some balance people and stop watching the news 24/7.
Unemployment will got to 8.75 – 9.5% under current reporting methodology.
As noted by some, this stat is trash…
Real rate is probably 25-35% greater than above.
Also as noted, the debt loads need to be reduced.
For Obama, to get employment in US going, he will need both carrot and stick with existing business – credits if creating / holding US based jobs, heavy, heavy penalty if offshore jobs. He also needs to drop all income tax and move the US to a VAT structure – this will allow the US Gov the ability to ensure / balance “fair trade” with our foreign trading partners.
Lastly – for those who can and want to, the Gov. needs to remove ALL taxes off 401k, IRA’s, 403B, etc., withdrawals if used to retire one’s mortgage. This approach, for many who are layed off, will allow them to maintain their home, get the debt and cash flow off their books, increase the banking reserves as these liabilities get removed, and by providing lower cash demands for those who are unemployed, allow them to source employment at lower wages due to improved cash flow position… This approach will not work for all, but will work for several million, and allows such individuals the ability to recapitalize themselves at no expense to the Government or fellow taxpayers… This suggestion has been sent to various members of Congress in the State of MA, and also to the House Speaker… None have bothered to reply to this suggestion solution – just an example of ‘ more of the same ‘…
I really don’t trust the government employment numbers. They have been cooked about as much as a sub-prime mortgage company’s books. I think they understate unemployment by around 5%. I’m probably being conservative with that estimate.
I think the purely government statistics will go to between 10% to 15%. Actual unemployment will be somewhere between 15% and 25% if you consider the underemployed. I don’t see the economy recovering for several years, especially if oil goes back up to $100. If gas goes back over $2/gallon, the consumer is going to pull back even more.
The Great Depression lasted for almost 13 years. FDR’s fiscal stimulus took some of the sting out of the depression, but it was World War II that ended it and the payoff, over time, of the 1920’s debt.
Unlike previous recent recessions, this is a debt driven recession, not a supply driven recession. This is what makes the current recession eerily like the Great Depression. Until the debts out there are paid, the consumer is not returning to the market.
Paul, speaking of mid-to-long term, markets do not go down because of somebody seeing some news. People sell because they HAVE TO sell. And people will continue to sell because they have to eat or they have to pay for something else. All your so-called “investors” are the traders who also buy on borrowed money and they will also have to sell at some point.
I think, for your cheerleading effort, sometimes you have to pretend to be objective and bring up topics for discussion such as “Is it a ceiling yet ?”, “Are all the good news already priced in ?” or “Even the most stubborn investor of 2008 is selling now”.
As far as your question about the unemployment: the way it is calculated now, it is meaningless number. If you want to improve it – just don’t count those who lost their jobs more than a week ago .
It’s a tough call to make, in part because the whole thing could turn around on a dime, if investors sitting on the sidelines want it to. It turns out that there’s around $9 trillion in cash sitting around doing nothing useful, while the economy languishes.
Assuming that the big hoarders remain true to form, the uninvested asset base will probably grow as more and more investors pull their money out of the economy, and unemployment could easily peak above 12%.
If we somehow manage to induce investment of a portion of those sidelined funds, the recession could rapidly be alleviated, and unemployment could still peak below 10%.
Based on current facts, I’m planning on > 12%.
Unemployment will crest at about 9%, about 2% higher than now, or about 13 million total unemployed out of a work force of 150 million.
A lot of it depends on how the Obama Stimulus is architected. If he uses direct spending, such as the 1933 WPA, we can expect about 20,000 good jobs for a year for each $1 billion ($19 per hour plus few benefits). So, $500 billion would produce 10 million jobs for a year. Clearly, this won’t happen. If he uses a lot of tax cuts, there will be attrition. The companies will hoard it, the rich will save it, and the poor will spend some of it on imports (leakage to China). The remainder will actually produce some jobs here. Cross your fingers.
If it’s done right, with a lot of direct spending, a $1 trillion stimulus could generate up to $5 trillion of GDP and about $1.5 trillion of taxes, so we get our money back and then some. It could happen.
In a post-industrial economy, it doesn’t take a 25% unemployment rate to signal a depresssion. An unemployment rate of 15% is the equivalent of a 1929-style depression, and at the rate we’re going, we’ll reach nearly 12% unemployment by the end of 2009. If the December retail sales figures are as bad as everyone thinks, then we’ll see 12% unemployment by Q3 2009. I don’t think we’ll see a reversal of the downward employment spiral until Q2 or Q3 of 2010. Hang on to your hats, folks, this is going to be one heck of a bumpy ride!
With no light at the end of the tunnel and so many interacting variables, its a wild guess. Double digit seems guaranteed. The Obama plan to produce jobs is still far away. Money has to be allocated by Congress. Priorities have to be set. Plans have to be drawn. Organizational structure must be put together. Workers must be selected and trained. This resembles the mobilization of the economy after Pearl Harbor. The full impact may not be until 2010. How much more fall and momentum will occur before that?
Will we run out of money to fuel this? China may not buy as many bonds as it has been as they are feeling the recession too. The Social Security Trust fund will be absorbing less and less debt until it too starts liquidating to pay out to the boomers. We may have to sell US bonds the way we did war bonds in the great wars.
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One day I’m making $4,500 a month all bills paid not over limiting myself. To being laid off savings and backup cash gone nice credit getting ready to take a hit that I spent building up for years. Being out of work for 4 months now. Being told by my Mortgage company we can’t help you till you are past due? Why when I’m past due ? So I can can trash my credit. (Where’s the help before you get behind and lose everything?)