Forget banks, keep an eye on trucks

PIRATES I TELL YA!!!
I agree totally..Need to nip these HIGH BROWS at their person. They need to feel what we are feeling to learn.
”
1. An neutral party audit of the FED
2. Clawback of the trillions
3. Full audit of the bail funds
4. Clean gov’t stats
5. Term limits
6. GS out of the gov’t
7. Elimination of the FED”

What signs do you need to see to convince you the economy is stabilizing?

1. An neutral party audit of the FED
2. Clawback of the trillions
3. Full audit of the bail funds
4. Clean gov’t stats
5. Term limits
6. GS out of the gov’t
7. Elimination of the FED
…

Yeah, once the source of the problems are fixed then economy will turn. The economy has been crippled by a parasitic gov’t-private partnership for a long time.

This economy is not rebounding!! It is preparing for a downturn no one will believe! you are not helping anyone! I’m in trucking and I know!! Stop it please!!!

I agree that the transportation sector is going to be the first to show any sign of recovery.

I have a couple of neighbors who are owner-operator, long haul truckers. Before the recession, I saw their trucks parked only a couple of days a month. Last month, they were parked 5 out of 7 days a week. Recently, I noticed that they are home only on the weekends.

I don’t think there is going to be a rapid recovery. I think things will just be “less bad” for an extended period of time. I think we’re a couple of years away from full recovery, at the minimum. In December and January, we were well on our way to a depression.

What really worries me is that the fundamental causes of this recession have never been addressed. We still have a potential commodity shortage lurking in the global economy. With the Federal Reserve cranking the printing presses at full speed, what’s going to happen when all this paper suddenly hits the economy?

If oil goes back to over $100 a barrel, the economy will come crashing down again. People really pulled back when gas went over $3 a gallon.

Since housing brought us to the edge of disaster, I am hopeful that housing may be the first sign of stablization. The number of sold homes increased by 5% in February and over 50% of those sales were first time buyer, who I assume are taking advantage of the President’s stimulus plan that provides an 8,000 dollar credit.

Not a scientific poll, but on my street in South Dallas we have gone from 3 vacant houses to 1 in the last 2 months, one of them was next door to me. It had been on the market for 14 months in one phase or another. Now there is a new family living in it.

Not a turn around, but hopefully the beginning of the end of the decline!

Huge bank profits should not come as a surprise. Expect more from other banks that have gotten $Billions in TARP money from taxpayers and who can now mark their toxic assets to whatever value they want based on their “judgement”. Banks have been buying more of these toxic assets rather than trying to get rid of them because Geithner’s PPIP progam makes these assets so appealing. The banks put up 6% of the face value of the assets and they get 50% of the profits and they can hold these on their books at face value if they want to. The economy is being held up by massive government spending in the form of stimulus packages and bailouts. And while these tactics prevent an economic collapse in the short run, they make the longer term economic picture much much worse. The Federal budget deficit for this year is now projected to be $1.75Trillion (I’m expect $2Trillion) and next year’s deficit is now projected at $1.4Trillion (I’m also expecting $2Trillion next year). The only recovery I see is temporary based on the amount of money the government pours into the economy. Once they stop adding liquidity, the economy relapses. The recovery plan consists of getting the consumer to spend, but the consumer is faced with lower asset values, higher unemployment, and large debts. The consumer is not coming back anytime soon. I do agree with the comment made earlier that the Federal Reserve is really corrupting the economy and it will have long lasting effects. Just how do we get out from under a projected $20Trillion federal debt over the next 10 years ? (I fully expect that number to be reached in 7-8 years). I also find it really disgusting to see the banks getting bailed out after creating the economic problems due to their greed and for them to contimue to gouge their customers with increased rates on CC and higher fees. The bankers should be kicked out. I no longer deal with the banks as I have all of my money in a credit union. Bankers are nothing more than crooks who have stolen Billions and I don’t trust them at all.

I really don’t care what the stock market is doing and whether or not the Transportation sector is outperforming the rest of the market. The fact of the matter is that Wall Street and the stock picker pundits are only making a guess as to when shipping will increase and as we have seen time and time again, Wall Street pundits aren’t very prescient in picking what will happen in the future. When I read that transportation of goods have increased that is when I will believe the economy is turning around on a global level. As it stands now the transportation of goods is rather anemic and does NOT portend the end of the economic crises. In addition, the profit report by Wells Fargo is not to be believed as they are probably hiding a lot of undisclosed losses and liabilities which will reduce their ’supposed’ profit from operations. One of the manipulations Wells Fargo has done is not set aside enough money this quarter to cover their liabilities and the result is that the illusion that they had profits. The % of people falling behind on their mortgages and credit card payments is increasing and now stands at historically high levels portending serious losses for the banking and financial sector and as the recession wears on and as job losses mount this will only get worse. Foreclosures are rising. Unemployment will increase. So what are you basing your rosy projections on of a stabilized economy? Dreaming and praying to God or whatever you believe in or not will not improve the economy. Unbridled Optimism will also not improve the economy.

Any stated bank earnings will now be a sham as they can call bad debt on the books as good investments. Sure wish I could still say my house was worth what I paid for it 2 years ago. Sure would help my line of credit. Things are not better they are being spun better so we will end up in even more hurt thanks to the banksters and their government protectors. Crooks!

An end to losing Jobs each month, An end to the bailouts, An end to bank failures, An end to all the alphabet soup programs the FED and Treasury are creating, An end to spending trillions in so called STIMULUS, An end to the daily media brainwashing trying to convince us things are getting better, when these occur I will be convinced. What do you think the chances of this happening in the forseeable future are?

I will believe we are finally getting to a strong and stable economy when our current accounts deficit reverses.

And, by the way, Campaign for Liberty – while I agree that fractional reserve banking is unsustainable, gold or silver based money is not an option. There does not exist enough gold and silver in the world to back enough money to run the world economy. Probably not even enough to run the US economy and that would be if we could somehow control all of it. You would do something very useful if you let go of calling for the unworkable to replace the unworkable and figure out something that could work. A call for “gold backed money” is like a call for “free health care for all”. It sounds good when you say it, but it can’t be implemented in the real world. If you want to actually solve the problem – let go of your pipe dreaming and find a pragmatic option.

A 50% drop in public debt?

I would have to see jobs being created, and more attention being paid to main street. Wall street has gotten their hundreds of billions, but with no main street workers able to support their families, it will have all been a charade and Wall street lost nothing, due to tax payers covering their losses.

When the train track next to my office is used once every hour of the day it will be piking up. When it is back to every 15 minutes we will be rolling in it.

The best signs of a stabilizing econoomy will be 3 consecutive months of a decline in initial unemployment claims, and a 3 month consecutive rise in consumer sentiment survey – after all it is wherewithal and psychological and in the end it is consumer activity which shapes the entire economy (excluding defense).

Signs the economy has begun to stablize
1. The job market has stablized – not going to happen till end of next year
2. Prices of consumer commodities (food & oil) drop to their fair value – Currently the prices in food industry are inflated by atleast four to five times their fair value

3. Alizée shows up at a White House performance!

Paul: This isn’t related to todays entry, but I think it’s relevant just the same. I remain unshakably confident in several things:

1. These so-called “stimulus” packages are a crock and are exquisitely rigged to only benefit A) the very people who created this mess and B) the people who least deserve them. Those of us who lived within our means, lived responsibly and took no part in the Dot Com, Stock Market, and Real Estate circuses continue to get shafted.

2. Which means that the way I see it, we are about one more Bernie Madoff swindle away from the public saying “That’s the last straw” and going absolutely ape $hit with someone dispatching a rocket propelled grenade into a glass covered office building somewhere. Once that first window is shattered, all bets are off. Remember that both Detroit and Los Angeles burned (the latter city twice) for far less grievances.

I believe President Obama is very much aware of this situation and understands that his Administration is on very thin ice with the public. Why else did he stand there in a cold sweat and proclaim that he was the only thing standing between Wall Street and those “wielding pitch forks”?

His honeymoon is just about over, his political capital just about spent, and at some point, former President Bush’s problems WILL become his irrespecive of their origins.

3. The current ongoing Stock Market rally is the greatest suckers rally in history. Market Bulls, of which there are still no shortage of, have notoriously short memories and are already oohing and aweing of a “new bull run”, “recovery is imminent”, blah blah blah. It’s pitifully obvious to anyone who has a grasp of reality knows that the Stock Market and the Dow are blissfully…perhaps shamefully disconnected from the real world. I believe, now more than ever, that the so-called carnage we saw last fall was just a preview of what’s coming. This latest rally is also going to come to a very bad conclusion, ending in a pool of tears and blood so massive I don’t even want to think about. Look to see a Dow 3000-4000 as the REAL bottom. The only questions are 1) when will it happen? (my guess is before Q4 ‘10), and 2) will it collapse in one giant capitulating crash (like I believe it needs to)? Or will it be a long, slow, and agonizing incremental fall similar to what we saw last year? Either way, the result will be the same and as I said, is where I am 100% convinced we are heading. I suspect that the market knows this too and they are simply saying “this is it…the last party is at hand….let’s get what we can and run before it falls apart”.

I am generally allergic to so-called “Conspiracy” theories and all of that tinfoil hat wearing mumbo jumbo. But nevertheless, I do very much believe in ulterior motives and “other sides to the story”.

I have no way of knowing if this is true or not, but I would NOT bet against a scenario resembling the following as being the real reasons for these continued bailouts and what we aren’t being told.

Here’s the scenario:

Mr Bush and later, Mr Obama get a phone call. It is from Premier Hu Jintao of China. His call is short and sweet:

“Hello Mr President. This is Hu Jintao of China. I just want to remind you that we are holding most of your debt. And now you have ran your economy into the ground. You BETTER NOT let these banks fail. If any of them default, we will be demanding payment in full. If you think you’re going to try and stiff us, we will invade and take it by force. After all, we already own half of you. As head of state to head of state, let me remind you, just our *ARMY* is bigger than your entire population. And don’t get any stupid ideas about hitting that red button. Because remember. We have one too. You have your orders. Thank you and have a nice day.”

Think about it.

I realize that, to put it mildly, it comes across as grim and very alarmist. Some of you will at least think (if not write) that I am “a nut case”, a “froot loop”, a “doomer”, or whatever. Call it what you will. Be that as it may. But before you decide to distance yourself completely, just consider this additional thought.

If everything I said above turns out to be wrong, and through all odds, happy days and propserity returns to the nation on a large scale (not just to those handful of Plutocrats running Wells Fargo and AIG), then great. And I mean genuine, tangible sustainable prosperity. Not just another series of artificial bubbles born out of creative financing where the real world economy still consists of selling fried chicken and Mocha Lattés. That would be fan-fu**ing tastic. To see all of these people pull off the biggest heist in human history, dig us out of it, and return our lifestyles back to something resembling the mid 1980’s or late 1990’s would be nothing short of miraculous. If these Masters of The Universe can pull that off, tnen yes. I will admit I was wrong, issue a full apology. And state for the record that those egregious bonuses were well earned and deserved. Life will go on and all will be good with the world. But I am very hard pressed, given the current state of affairs (crumbling infrastructure, oil depletion, and a gutted manufacturing base) how that would even be possible in the forseeable future. But hope springs eternal, right?

But if I’m RIGHT, then God help us all.

Transportation is a pretty good indicator of the real economy, where you have to ship and deliver something (not just swap slips of paper) in order to get paid and make money.

I already see some of these signs:
– The rate of monthly job losses is dropping since peaking in January
– The monthly trade deficit has dropped from $75 billion in September to $25 billion in March; we’re producing a larger % of what we consume

We need to see GDP growth resume, probably in Q3, maybe in Q2.

We need to see job growth, probably in the beginning of 2010.

What we need to look at is what happened to “inventory” – If you look at last year, the wholesale inventory rate went UP through Nov, and then collapsed, while retailers used up and lowered their excess inventory.

The fact that some retailers may be replacing their sales inventory does NOT mean that the wholesale-retain inventory is “in balance”. Until that happens your numbers are meaningless.

I work for one of the carriers that hauls for Dow (mostly their chemical/hazmat loads). Overall, freight has been dismal but our company was one of the few to survive thanks to aggressive cost cutting procedures. Our freight is up 12% from 6 months ago… thats a great sign.

Hey, you can’t, as a nation, have housing as your main industry, it just won’t work.
With all of our light to heavy industry shipped off to India and China as well as some other countries as well. Now its our auto industry slowly going down the drain, wow what a mess. Now, this socialist we have for a president is going to make matters worse. What is he doing? Why he’s cutting defense spending while Russia and China are going all out to increase their nuclear capability, missiles, naval vessels and other weaponry.

Please, lets cut corporate tax rates so much that it would be virtually impossible for a corporation or company to want to move overseas, lets get our jobs back, cut the national deficit, get back to old fashioned capitalism and just see what we can accomplish as a country again. But, most of all lets start to cut the size of the federal government, it has grown entirely too large and is totally out of control. I know all of what I have said is just a dream, I really do believe it could work, thanks for listening…

Ralphie

The Baltic Dry index. Same idea as land cargo transportation, but on a larger scale.

I use the truss truck theory. On my way to work I pass a number of trucks carrying trusses for home construction. 3 yrs ago i passed 5 each morning. Now if I see one a week it’s a lot.

When the unemployment trend reverses and inflation proves to be stable, I’ll be convinced the economy is moving in the right direction. Wells Fargo’s profit is fabulous news, but it does not outweigh job and housing price deterioration, the threat of inflation, and the myriad of other negative statistics.

When consumer spending makes up only 60% of the GDP.

When GM, Ford, & Chrysler make smaller, more reliable cars.

When financial institutions start paying their dept to the government.

When the deficit starts shrinking.

If we want to have an even stronger, healthier economy, abolish the corrupt federal reserve system.

I need to see major monetary system reform, the elimination of Fractional Reserve Banking & a return to Constitutional SOUND money of either gold or silver!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MASSIVE TAX DAY TEA PARTY PROTEST PLANNED NATIONALLY FOR APRIL 15TH!

When weekly jobless claims drop to 300k.

wages increasing and students able to pay off student’s loan for higher education.

When I see bankers that received a large bonus over the course of several years and now their institutions are being bailed out by the taxpayer in federal prison then, and only then, will I take this as a sign that the economy will right itself. Until the claw back and imprisonment of these individuals there will be no trusting anything comes out of Wall Street or their puppets in Washington.

I will feel better when I stop hearing about jobs going over seas, which has been going on for years, everyone just looks the other way. In Ohio we manufacture almost nothing compared to what we used to 10+ years ago, unless you count hamburgers.

The company I work for tried to increase my take home by $16 a week for the joke of a tax cut, I had them put my withholdings back to what they were and actually increase them some! This is how much I trust everyone in office and their tax cut lies!

I continue to trim my budget where I can and refuse to buy anything that I can’t eat or drink! I have spent less money on my credit card each month this year than I have in over 5 years! So don’t expect me to take on more debt to help the economy it won’t happen! I suspect we are in for a huge tax increase before long, someone has to pay for the Wall St bailout!

For me to feel really comfortable, I would need to see the small business that I work for turn a profit consecutively for 6 months. We have lost money for the last 8 months in a row. Prudent planning my boss kept us afloat. We can only make it another 4 months unless things turn around.

Having grown up in the Appalachian region I would welcome anyone who thnks the economy is stabalizing to the world of subsistance farming. (When the markets don’t rise the moonshines.)